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Aluminium; the end of the Indian summer?

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06 October 2014

Aluminium; the end of the Indian summer?

Report summary

Following the ruling in late September in which the Indian Supreme Court cancelled coal blocks awarded in the period 1993-2010, Wood Mackenzie estimates that the cost to the Indian aluminium industry will be more than US$300 million per year.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Indian smelter production growth may slow down as costs rise
      • India sits in the first quartile of the global cost curve (C1 basis), 2014
      • 50% increase in cost ex-mine equates to 13% delivered cost of coal
      • Supreme Court ruling will increase smelter C1 cash costs in India by up to 7%
      • Risks to future coal supply
    • Shortage of coal and higher cost of electricity to impact the pipeline of smelter projects in India
      • India projected to add more than 4Mt of smelter capacity by 2019
    • Our incentive price analysis suggests that smelter projects in India will still be competitive after the Supreme Court ruling
      • Investor's incentive price increases by 5%

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium; the end of the Indian summer?: Image 1
  • Aluminium; the end of the Indian summer?: Image 2
  • Aluminium; the end of the Indian summer?: Image 3
  • Aluminium; the end of the Indian summer?: Table 1
  • Aluminium; the end of the Indian summer?: Image 4
  • Aluminium; the end of the Indian summer?: Image 5

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Aluminium; the end of the Indian summer?

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