Insight
Aluminium: Things to look for in 2025
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Report summary
The outlook for 2025 will be shaped by major developments that started to emerge in the second half of 2024. The surprising and abrupt removal of the long standing semis export rebate by China, the likelihood of elevated trade tensions following the US presidential election and still high alumina prices together with bauxite supply disruptions in Guinea will play a pivotal role in determining the global metal balance as well as price trajectory.
Table of contents
- 2024: A year of contrasts
- How will the removal of the Chinese VAT rebate on semis exports impact the market?
- Heightened trade tensions set to inject greater volatility in the aluminium market
- Is the cyclical peak in global primary demand at risk?
- The alumina market will flip to a surplus in 2025
- Constrained aluminium supply
- Bauxite supply risks to ease in 2025 but Guinea may surprise
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