Insight

Are high Chinese aluminium semis exports structural or cyclical?

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China’s exports of semis show no signs of falling back significantly. In many rest of the world markets, they are now a regular part of the downstream aluminium supply chain. This is happening despite continued trade cases and duties being imposed on what many see as unfair competition. In this Insight, we look at what, why and how Chinese semis flow into rest of the world markets. We also shed light on whether this trend is set to persist. The future pattern of aluminium semis trade between China and the rest of the world will have profound implications on smelter and downstream investment in the world ex-China.

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
  • Rest of the world primary supply gap plugged by Chinese semis exports
  • Chinese semis exports under the microscope
  • Wide arbitrage and high margins in the driving seat
  • Chinese semis exports still winning despite US tariffs
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Chinese semis exports necessary to fill rest of the world primary shortfall
  • Plate, sheet and strip dominates Chinese exports of semis
  • It’s all about the arbitrage in the near term
  • Chinese exports of semis redirected from the US to Asia and Europe
  • Where China and rest of the world aluminium markets collide

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Are high Chinese aluminium semis exports structural or cyclical?

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