Insight
Battery supply chain modelling: A new perspective
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Report summary
The lithium-ion battery supply chain faces structural oversupply across raw materials, cathode active material (CAM), and cells. Cathode inventories have peaked but remained elevated. China's anti-involution measures aim to curb overcapacity but face limited impact in the consumer-driven EV market. Wood Mackenzie's new first-use methodology — derived directly from production data rather than end-use battery demand — results in an uplift to historical and forecast demand for cathodes, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese. While oversupply is expected to persist through the next decade, the gap between CAM production and end-use demand should narrow progressively as the market corrects.
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