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Heavy rare earths: How stable is China’s monopoly?

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Heavy rare earth elements are a sub-set of rare earth elements. Their importance is often masked by low trade volumes, but a wide range of end-use applications, including green tech and defence, makes them key markets to understand amid changing global geopolitics. China currently accounts for 95% of refined heavy rare earth supply. Diversification efforts are seeking to erode the country’s influence. Results so far are limited, but can investment change market structure near-term, or is China’s supply chain control too entrenched? In this analysis we explain why heavy rare earth elements are important, how China controls current supply chains and where new production may emerge to challenge Chinese dominance.

Table of contents

  • Small volumes, critical impact
  • How China uses its control of heavy rare earth supply
  • Myanmar: The limits of China’s control
  • The gap between ambition and production
  • Conclusion: Cracks in the monopoly, but itwill not break overnight

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

    China: Monthly and annual exports of dysprosium and terbiumChina and Europe: Dy and Tb prices over the past 18 monthsChina monthly rare earth imports from Myanmar and Laos
    Ex-China: Elemental breakdown of main existing rare earth producers and select projectsEx-China: Development stage and planned dysprosium and terbium production for selected projectsChina forecast share of refined terbium and dysprosium supply, 2020–2035

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    Heavy rare earths: How stable is China’s monopoly?

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