Insight
BHP eyes Anglo American for copper growth
Report summary
This document analyses the potential combination of BHP and Anglo American – including valuation, strategic rationale and synergies. All these factors will be crucial in determining whether this ambitious merger becomes a reality, potentially reshaping the landscape of the global mining sector.
Table of contents
- Potential rationalisation candidates
- Anglo American’s valuation has had a series of hits over the past year
- Production outlook curtailed amongst capital constraints
- Anglo American is trading at the highest premium to our base NAV of the Diversified Miners
- 1. BHP’s price deck is above broker consensus, while Wood Mackenzie is below
- 2. Operational synergies in copper and metallurgical coal
- 3. Unlocking PGM, diamond and metallurgical coal value through M&A
- 4. Development opportunities focussed on copper and iron ore
- BHP’s valuation is supported by the copper pipeline
- The current market valuation is close to the highest ratio of Anglo American to BHP
- Dusting off the M&A playbook
- No sacred cows
Tables and charts
This report includes 10 images and tables including:
- EBITDA margin (%)
- Capital intensity (‘000 US$/t CuEq)
- Timeline of company results and guidance changes
- EV /EBITDA
- EV / NAV premium
- Consensus pricing vs Wood Mackenzie - Copper (US$/t)
- Consensus pricing vs Wood Mackenzie - Iron ore (US$/t)
- Anglo American yet-to-approve copper projects
- Upside to Wood Mackenzie Base Case Valuation (US$ billion)
- Ratio of BHP to Anglo American enterprise value
What's included
This report contains:
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