Cobalt Market 2021 outlook to 2050 Report

Commodity Market Report 23 December 2021

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Report summary

2021 has been a breakout year for cobalt demand. After showing resilient growth in 2020 against the backdrop of a pandemic, cobalt demand has continued its growing momentum in 2021. Such strong performance can be largely attributed to the rocketing battery demand, with cobalt use across the spectrum of battery applications rising sharply. After the market rebalanced over the course of 2020, we saw a dramatic shift in market fundamentals driven by continuous supply tightness in feedstocks, metal stock drawdown caused by state stockpiling and a strong demand recovery. These factors together have all combined to fuel the price rally in 2021, with the benchmark metal price rising to a three-year high of over US$33/lb in late December.

New price cycles needed in mid-2020s and early 2030s
Long-term cobalt price forecast to be consistent with the historical average
Cobalt demand set to grow strongly in the next decade
Long-term outlook is positive, but substitution risks persist
Cobalt supply will remain DRC- and China-centric, but diversification continues
Recycling to make material contribution to supply growth from early 2030s
Market balance and price drivers
Base case price forecast
- Short-term forecast (2022-2024)
- Medium-term forecast (2025-2029)
- Long-term forecast (2030-2050)
Risks to forecast
- Short term – upside
- Short term – downside
- Long term – upside
- Long term – downside
Batteries
- Automotive
- Portable electronics
- Energy storage systems (ESS)
- Power and motive devices
Superalloys
- Aerospace and defence
- Power generation
- Prosthetics and dentistry
Tool materials
- Cemented carbides
- High-speed steel (HSS) and diamond tools
Magnets
Pigments and decolourisers
Catalysts
Soaps and driers
Other niche applications
Mine production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia
- Europe
- Oceania
- Americas
Smelter production capability
Recycling capacity
Refinery production capability
- Summary
- By geography
- By product type

Tables and charts

This report includes 71 images and tables including:

Cobalt market balances and metal price outlook
Cobalt demand outlook, by first use
Cobalt demand outlook, by end use

Supply of cobalt intermediates, by geography
Supply of refined cobalt, by geography
Global cobalt feedstock production versus demand
Market balances for cobalt feedstocks
Market balances for refined cobalt and stock levels
Market balances for cobalt metal
Cobalt market balances and metal price outlook
Outlook for cobalt hydroxide payability and underlying metal prices
Forecast cobalt demand in rechargeable batteries, by end use
Forecast cobalt demand in rechargeable batteries, by battery type
Forecast cobalt demand in rechargeable batteries, by product type
Forecast cobalt demand in superalloys, by end use
Forecast cobalt demand in tool materials, by tool type
Forecast cobalt demand in tool materials, by end use
Forecast demand of NdFeB magnets, by sector
Forecast new wind power installation capacity and NdFeB loadings in wind turbines
Forecast production of SmCo magnets, by region
Forecast cobalt demand in magnets, by type
Forecast global PTA production, by region
Forecast global diesel and gasoil supply, by region
Forecast cobalt demand in other niche applications
Cobalt smelter production, by source
Base case cobalt smelter production, by geography
African mine capability, by destination
Base case cobalt smelter production, by product type
Forecast cobalt recovery at smelters
Cobalt contained in end-of-life (EOL) battery scrap
Cobalt recovery from recycling, by sector
Forecast cobalt recycling, by source
Forecast cobalt recycling capacity
Short-term cobalt price forecasts
Medium-term cobalt price forecasts
Long-term cobalt price forecasts
Cobalt demand outlook, by first use
Cobalt demand outlook, by end use
Cobalt demand outlook, by first use and product
Cobalt demand outlook, by product form
Forecast vehicle sales and BEV penetration
Forecast market share of battery cathodes in EVs
Forecast intensity of use of cobalt in electric vehicles
Forecast sales of portable electronics
Forecast market share of battery cathodes in portables devices
Forecast ESS installations by battery technology
Forecast market share of Li-ion battery cathodes in ESS
Forecast sales of power and motive devices
Forecast market share of Li-ion battery cathodes in power devices
Daily numbers of global commercial flights
Yearly net orders of Airbus and Boeing
Forecast commercial fleet and retired planes
Forecast value added of aerospace, by geography
Forecast electricity output, by source
Forecast cemented carbide demand versus BEV penetration
Forecast cemented carbide demand by sector and cobalt loading rates
Cobalt mine production, by source
Base case cobalt mine production, by region
Base case cobalt mine production, by primary metal
Base case cobalt mine production, by mining sector
Scenarios for cobalt supply from artisanal sources
African cobalt mine production
Asian cobalt mine production
European cobalt mine production
Oceania cobalt mine production
Cobalt mine production in the Americas
Refined cobalt production, by source
Base case refined cobalt production, by geography
Refined cobalt production and projects, by geography
Base case refined cobalt production, by product type
Refined cobalt production, by product type and source