Copper under an accelerated energy transition 1.5 °C scenario

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21 June 2022

Copper under an accelerated energy transition 1.5 °C scenario

Report summary

Copper has been at the forefront of all discussions surrounding the need to ramp-up metals supply to deliver on the aspirational energy transition-related goals. The uptake of rapid uptake of copper-intensive clean technologies such as solar, wind, energy storage and electric vehicles as well as related supporting infrastructure including the requirement to upgrade electricity grid networks, will underpin future copper demand besides the conventional end-uses. The impact to demand will be even larger if the deployment of these technologies is faster under the AET-1.5 scenario compared to the base case (ETO). Our analysis indicates that cathode consumption would be 3.7 Mt higher in 2032 under AET-1.5 versus the ETO. This translates into a 9.7 Mt requirement by 2032 for new copper supply from mining projects yet to be sanctioned compared to 6.5 Mt under our base case (ETO).

Table of contents

  • What are the implications for copper demand?
  • How will the supply side respond?
  • Scrap use will rise under AET-1.5
  • What does and AET-1.5 scenario mean for prices?

Tables and charts

This report includes 2 images and tables including:

  • Supply gap under a base case and AET-1.5 demand scenario
  • Copper price forecast: AET-1.5 and Base Case scenarios

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Copper Outlook AET 1.5.pdf

    PDF 1.56 MB