Coronavirus and the oil price crash: update on what it means for aluminium smelter costs

Wood Mackenzie updates our estimate of cost support for bauxite mines, alumina refineries and aluminium smelters relative to our insight published on 26 March 2020. This update incorporates costs as of 1 April. We have reduced the oil price by 65%, to US$20/bbl, compared with our Q1 2020 cost update and adjusted a number of major currency exchange rates against the US dollar. While the LME aluminium cash price has moved well below $1500/t (as at 1 April), the impact of lower energy units and volatile exchange rates has in turn lowered the global cost base. To determine cost support is therefore challenging but a necessary exercise to understand the health of the supply chain and candidate assets vulnerable to curtailment.