Insight
Disruption looms over Guinean bauxite supply
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
As we approach a tense electoral period in Guinea, miners and bauxite buyers are increasingly apprehensive about supply disruption. There is a 52% chance that ruling president Alpha Condé will reform the constitution to stand for a third term, according to our sister company Verisk Maplecroft. Doing so is likely to ignite civil unrest in bauxite-producing regions, which could lead to obstruction of road and rail export routes. Ahead of the likely spike in protests in 2020, we have considered three scenarios and how they would impact the landed quality-adjusted bauxite price (CIF Shandong).
Table of contents
- Methodology
- Civil unrest incidents aren’t made equal
- Northern corridor presents the biggest risk
- Near term impact analysis
- Election may thwart long-term output
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Civil unrest in urban areas can impede roads and railway - Protests by type in Boké Prefecture
What's included
This report contains:
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