Insight
Future Facing Commodities - your questions answered
Report summary
On 16 March 2023 Wood Mackenzie held the second annual Future Facing Commodities Forum and welcomed over 1,100 guests across our Asia Pacific and US/EMEA broadcasts. Our discussions explored the status and outlook of electric vehicle (EV) penetration, renewables power generation and storage, the outlook and costs of disruptive technologies (such as hydrogen and carbon capture) and the impact on key commodity markets. We also presented our commodity market views on rare earth elements, copper, cobalt, lithium and nickel; as well as the markets for anodes and cathodes. We looked beyond the usual supply, demand and price dynamic to answer more fundamental questions about where the industries are heading. Understandably, attendees had plenty of questions. In this report we seek to share our responses with all our metals and mining clients.
Table of contents
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Battery technology change
- Where is the greatest potential impact for lithium demand?
- Do Vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) factor into your forecast?
- Can graphene anodes replace graphite?
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Substitution
- What are the factors limiting copper and aluminium competition?
- Is copper-clad aluminium a risk to copper demand?
- Which rare earth elements (REEs) are at risk of substitution?
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Scrap evolution
- How reliant will graphite and lithium supply be on recycling?
- With the decline in copper grades and increasing capex for mainstream extraction, how do you see the prospect of copper being extracted from old tailings?
- Do your long-term prices incentivise the higher level of scrap collection mentioned in the presentation?
- Decarbonisation policy impacts
- What is the impact on EU steel of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)?
- When will CBAM be %100 in use?
- What is the impact of CBAM on the steel trade?
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Viability of hydrogen
- What is the current cost of green hydrogen?
- What input costs are required to enable US$2/kg hydrogen and how does transportation affect cost?
- Is Iridium a constraint on electrolyser capacity?
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