Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium investment horizon outlook - Q3 2023

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The aftershock from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war will continue to overhang the market over the next 3-5 years. We have lowered our global primary aluminium consumption growth estimates over the next few years to reflect an uncertain outlook for short-medium term end-use demand. The good news is that the next 10 years will see solid growth in secondary offtake as the aluminium industry accelerates it decarbonisation efforts. Although China is now ramping up output from hydro-based smelters, future supply from Yunnan, in particular, will become increasingly tied to variable reservoir water levels. Elsewhere, we expect most European curtailments to remain in place out to 2025 with a risk that some capacity will be permanently mothballed. Against this background, we expect the global market to remain in surplus for an extended period.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 42 images and tables including:

  • Global aluminium balance and prices
  • Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2000-2033, Mtpa
  • Stock days of consumption and price
  • Global supply-demand balance
  • Stock days and price
  • Smelter grade alumina balance
  • Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2033, Mtpa
  • Global alumina balance and prices
  • Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
  • Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
  • Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
  • Long term price forecast at US$430/t – Incentive price US$500
  • Average alumina prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
  • Main changes in aluminium production since the previous quarter
  • Main changes in alumina production since the previous quarter
  • Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
  • Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
  • Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location
  • Long term price forecast at US$3400/t (real 2023 $) – Incentive price US$2800
  • Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2050 and long-term price (US$/t)
  • Scenario analysis details
  • Base case, low case and high case scenario prices
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q2 2023 (Mt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption by region
  • Global secondary consumption by region
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2023 vs Q3 2023 (kt)
  • Total consumption by end-use sector
  • Primary consumption takes a back seat in driving total offtake
  • China wind and solar set for stellar growth
  • Non-residential construction growth set for uplift to 2027
  • Total end-use demand in Asia ex-China
  • Total end-use demand in Japan
  • Total end-use demand in India
  • Total end-use demand in Europe
  • Total end-use demand in North America
  • Available replacement capacity declined while the utilisation rate grew at Chinese smelters, ktpa
  • ROW aluminium new supply
  • Regional aluminium smelter production capability – Mt
  • Incremental China aluminium production in the base case, 2022-2028
  • Regional alumina refinery production capability – Mt
  • China’s alumina capacity change and highly probable project, ktpa

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium investment horizon outlook - Q3 2023

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