Energy Research & Consultancy

Commodity Market Report 22 September 2023

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Report summary

The aftershock from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war will continue to overhang the market over the next 3-5 years. We have lowered our global primary aluminium consumption growth estimates over the next few years to reflect an uncertain outlook for short-medium term end-use demand. The good news is that the next 10 years will see solid growth in secondary offtake as the aluminium industry accelerates it decarbonisation efforts. Although China is now ramping up output from hydro-based smelters, future supply from Yunnan, in particular, will become increasingly tied to variable reservoir water levels. Elsewhere, we expect most European curtailments to remain in place out to 2025 with a risk that some capacity will be permanently mothballed. Against this background, we expect the global market to remain in surplus for an extended period.

Aluminium medium-term outlook
Alumina medium-term outlook
Bauxite medium-term outlook
Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
Alumina long-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2023
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capability 2022-2033
- Asia
- China
- North America
- Latin America and the Caribbean
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2022-2033
- Asia
- Indonesia
- China
- Russia and the Caspian
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
Long term price, incentive price, risks and IRR methodology
- Incentive price
- Long term price
Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
Risks around the incentive price
Bauxite pricing

Tables and charts

This report includes 42 images and tables including:

Global aluminium balance and prices
Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2000-2033, Mtpa
Stock days of consumption and price

Global supply-demand balance
Stock days and price
Smelter grade alumina balance
Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2033, Mtpa
Global alumina balance and prices
Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
Long term price forecast at US$430/t – Incentive price US$500
Average alumina prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
Main changes in aluminium production since the previous quarter
Main changes in alumina production since the previous quarter
Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location
Long term price forecast at US$3400/t (real 2023 $) – Incentive price US$2800
Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2050 and long-term price (US$/t)
Scenario analysis details
Base case, low case and high case scenario prices
Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q2 2023 (Mt)
Global primary aluminium consumption by region
Global secondary consumption by region
Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2023 vs Q3 2023 (kt)
Total consumption by end-use sector
Primary consumption takes a back seat in driving total offtake
China wind and solar set for stellar growth
Non-residential construction growth set for uplift to 2027
Total end-use demand in Asia ex-China
Total end-use demand in Japan
Total end-use demand in India
Total end-use demand in Europe
Total end-use demand in North America
Available replacement capacity declined while the utilisation rate grew at Chinese smelters, ktpa
ROW aluminium new supply
Regional aluminium smelter production capability – Mt
Incremental China aluminium production in the base case, 2022-2028
Regional alumina refinery production capability – Mt
China’s alumina capacity change and highly probable project, ktpa