Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium investment horizon outlook - Q3 2023
Report summary
The aftershock from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war will continue to overhang the market over the next 3-5 years. We have lowered our global primary aluminium consumption growth estimates over the next few years to reflect an uncertain outlook for short-medium term end-use demand. The good news is that the next 10 years will see solid growth in secondary offtake as the aluminium industry accelerates it decarbonisation efforts. Although China is now ramping up output from hydro-based smelters, future supply from Yunnan, in particular, will become increasingly tied to variable reservoir water levels. Elsewhere, we expect most European curtailments to remain in place out to 2025 with a risk that some capacity will be permanently mothballed. Against this background, we expect the global market to remain in surplus for an extended period.
Table of contents
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
- Bauxite medium-term outlook
-
Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
-
Alumina long-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2023
-
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
-
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capability 2022-2033
- Asia
- China
- North America
- Latin America and the Caribbean
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
-
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2022-2033
- Asia
- Indonesia
- China
- Russia and the Caspian
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
-
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
-
Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
-
Long term price, incentive price, risks and IRR methodology
- Incentive price
- Long term price
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Risks around the incentive price
- Bauxite pricing
Tables and charts
This report includes 42 images and tables including:
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2000-2033, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2033, Mtpa
- Global alumina balance and prices
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
- Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Long term price forecast at US$430/t – Incentive price US$500
- Average alumina prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Main changes in aluminium production since the previous quarter
- Main changes in alumina production since the previous quarter
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
- Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
- Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Long term price forecast at US$3400/t (real 2023 $) – Incentive price US$2800
- Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2050 and long-term price (US$/t)
- Scenario analysis details
- Base case, low case and high case scenario prices
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q2 2023 (Mt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption by region
- Global secondary consumption by region
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2023 vs Q3 2023 (kt)
- Total consumption by end-use sector
- Primary consumption takes a back seat in driving total offtake
- China wind and solar set for stellar growth
- Non-residential construction growth set for uplift to 2027
- Total end-use demand in Asia ex-China
- Total end-use demand in Japan
- Total end-use demand in India
- Total end-use demand in Europe
- Total end-use demand in North America
- Available replacement capacity declined while the utilisation rate grew at Chinese smelters, ktpa
- ROW aluminium new supply
- Regional aluminium smelter production capability – Mt
- Incremental China aluminium production in the base case, 2022-2028
- Regional alumina refinery production capability – Mt
- China’s alumina capacity change and highly probable project, ktpa
What's included
This report contains:
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