Global aluminium investment horizon outlook - Q3 2023
The aftershock from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war will continue to overhang the market over the next 3-5 years. We have lowered our global primary aluminium consumption growth estimates over the next few years to reflect an uncertain outlook for short-medium term end-use demand. The good news is that the next 10 years will see solid growth in secondary offtake as the aluminium industry accelerates it decarbonisation efforts. Although China is now ramping up output from hydro-based smelters, future supply from Yunnan, in particular, will become increasingly tied to variable reservoir water levels. Elsewhere, we expect most European curtailments to remain in place out to 2025 with a risk that some capacity will be permanently mothballed. Against this background, we expect the global market to remain in surplus for an extended period.