Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2020
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. A downgrade to primary aluminium consumption in the medium-term, higher scrap usage globally means that there is less requirement for the aluminium industry to make significant investment in new smelting capacity over the long-term. However, we do expect some investment in replacement capacity. We include for the first time in the LTO an “In Focus” section that will explore critically important aspects of the aluminium industry. The first looks at supply chain diversification in the long run. This will have important implications for future first-use demand growth and for where new smelting capacity may be located.
Table of contents
- Aluminium market outlook
- Alumina market outlook
-
Bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Beyond coronavirus: Supply chain diversification in the long run
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2019
-
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- United States
- Project Classification
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2019-2040
- Africa
- North America
- Asia
- China
- Indonesia
- Europe
- 2 more item(s)...
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2019-2040
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Asia
- India
- China
- Europe
- Oceania
-
Bauxite production
- Regional focus
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
- Forecasting methodology
- Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Alumina: incentive price revised to US$350/t (from US$380/t) on location and lower discount rates
- Aluminium: the required aluminium incentive price is lower than the historical average at US$2100/t
- 3 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Global days of consumption to hit 84 days by 2023 driven by large surpluses in ROW
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity (93% utilisation), 2010-2040, Mtpa
- Downgrade in the primary aluminium incentive price from US$2250/t to US$2100/t
- Global aluminium balance
- Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Alumina demand and capacity (93% utilisation), 2011-2040, Mtpa
- Global alumina balance
- Long term alumina incentive price reduced to US$350/t
- Spot alumina prices, 1991-2040
- Total bauxite supply and demand, Mt
- Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
- Chinese low temp bauxite import requirement (MT) and marginal quality-adjusted delivered cost (US$/t Al2O3 equivalent), 2025
- 57 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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