Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2020
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
- Aluminium market outlook
- Alumina market outlook
-
Bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Beyond coronavirus: Supply chain diversification in the long run
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2019
-
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- United States
- Project Classification
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2019-2040
- Africa
- North America
- Asia
- China
- Indonesia
- Europe
- Russia and Caspian
- Oceania
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2019-2040
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Asia
- India
- China
- Europe
- Oceania
-
Bauxite production
- Regional focus
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
- Forecasting methodology
- Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Alumina: incentive price revised to US$350/t (from US$380/t) on location and lower discount rates
- Aluminium: the required aluminium incentive price is lower than the historical average at US$2100/t
- Risks around the incentive price
-
Bauxite pricing
- Global smelter production and capability 2019-2040
- Global refinery production and capability 2019-2040
- Global bauxite production, demand and regional balances 2019-2040
- Regional demand tables
Tables and charts
This report includes 69 images and tables including:
- Global days of consumption to hit 84 days by 2023 driven by large surpluses in ROW
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity (93% utilisation), 2010-2040, Mtpa
- Downgrade in the primary aluminium incentive price from US$2250/t to US$2100/t
- Global aluminium balance
- Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Alumina demand and capacity (93% utilisation), 2011-2040, Mtpa
- Global alumina balance
- Long term alumina incentive price reduced to US$350/t
- Spot alumina prices, 1991-2040
- Total bauxite supply and demand, Mt
- Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
- Chinese low temp bauxite import requirement (MT) and marginal quality-adjusted delivered cost (US$/t Al2O3 equivalent), 2025
- Quality-adjusted delivered cost curve for LT imported ores sources into China in 2025
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
- Base case global bauxite supply 2019-2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Alumina incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
- Aluminium incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
- Global primary aluminium consumption by region 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- China primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
- African primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Asian primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- European primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Latin America primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Middle East primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- North America primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Russia primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- China's share of global primary demand falls from a peak of 59% in 2025 to 47% by 2040
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2019 vs Q1 2020 (kt)
- Secondary aluminium consumption growth set to accelerate from late 2020s
- Intensity of total aluminium use in China to fall below industrial production from 2025 onwards
- Total demand split by end-use sectors
- Transportation set to drive total aluminium demand growth over the next 20 years
- Non-residential construction will provide support to aluminium demand beyond 2022
- European imports of extrusions from China
- US consumption per end-use sector
- US imports of rolled products from countries under investigation
- Global aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
- China's smelter capacity change in 2019-2025, ktpa
- Yunnan Hydropower Redundancy
- Global alumina production 2019-2023, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (Mt)
- Provincial distribution of China’s imported bauxite demand, 2019-2040 (Mt)
- Global aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
- Africa aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- North America aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Latin America aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Middle East aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Asia aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Europe aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Russia and Caspian aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Oceania aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Global alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
- Africa alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- North America alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Latin America alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Middle East alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Asia alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Europe alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Russia and Caspian alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Oceania alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Africa bauxite supply, demand and balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- North America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Latin America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Middle East bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Asia bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Europe bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Russia and Caspian bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Oceania bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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