The aluminium metal market service long-term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. The worldwide government response to the pandemic in the shape of green investment, which is wedded to stimulus spending and energy transition, has fundamentally changed the outlook for the aluminium industry. A low carbon world will bring disruption and dislocation for the aluminium market. We expect to see greater regionalisation of production and demand. Moreover, pricing is set to move from global price discovery to one defined by the carbon intensity of aluminium. However, there are a multitude of possible future outcomes. We are just at the start of a major shift in the dynamics of the aluminium market.