The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. Trade, tariffs and sanctions have been the major drivers of the aluminium market during the first six months in 2018. The balance of risk points to some solution being found to keep Rusal in the market. However, we are now in the midst of what seems to be a global trade war where initial rhetoric has now escalated into action. What began as US tariffs on aluminium and steel under Section 232 has blown out to cover a wide range of products, some of which are aluminium intensive. This suggests a volatile pricing environment and heightened risk of a sharp deceleration in global economic activity which could derail our steady state metal demand outlook.