Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2018

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22 June 2018

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2018

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium  supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. Trade, tariffs and sanctions have been the major drivers of the aluminium market during the first six months in 2018. The balance of risk points to some solution being found to keep Rusal in the market. However, we are now in the midst of what seems to be a global trade war where initial rhetoric has now escalated into action. What began as US tariffs on aluminium and steel under Section 232 has blown out to cover a wide range of products, some of which are aluminium intensive. This suggests a volatile pricing environment and heightened risk of a sharp deceleration in global economic activity which could derail our steady state metal demand outlook.

Table of contents

    • What’s changed?
    • Demand update
    • Supply update
    • Supply-demand balances update

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.08 MB

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q2 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.13 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 273.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 911.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 563.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 563.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 1019.50 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 686.50 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 361.00 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 297.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2018

    ZIP 2.31 MB