Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2018
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. The aluminium market continues to be buffeted by turbulence from trade disputes, tariffs and the Rusal sanctions. The outcomes from these will define the market over the next few years. The US-China trade war and US tariffs on aluminium has spooked investor sentiment, pushing the average quarterly LME price from $2258/t down to $2054/t so far in Q3. A tight market over the next few years on supply restraint from China and still decent global demand growth should support a steady increase in average annual prices over the next 3-4 years.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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Demand
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Overview
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2018
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Forecasts by region
- Asia
- China
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Asia (ex-China)
- Europe
- North America
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Overview
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Supply
- Project Classification
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Summary
- Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation
- Smelter production changes since Q2 2018 and forecasts
- Global smelter production and capacity 2017-2040
- Africa
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North America
- North America aluminium production
- 18 more item(s)...
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Supply-demand balances
- Aluminium market review and outlook
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Primary aluminium demand by region, 2015 - 2040
- Revisions to Q2 2018 forecasts (kt)
- Global aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
- Africa aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
- Supply: Table 7
- Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
- Revisions to Q2 2018 forecast, (kt)
- Global alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
- Africa alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
- Oceania alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
- Global supply-demand balance, LME cash prices and stocks in days of consumption
- 58 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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