The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. The ripple effects of the global pandemic will continue to reverberate over the medium-term. While there has been significant progress on vaccines, a global vaccination programme is still some way off. Although the risk of further virus outbreaks and localised lockdowns remain, the likelihood of a further major collapse in demand have lessened and prices will continue to be supported by positive investor sentiment. The long-term outlook will be shaped by energy transition and decarbonisation in the aluminium industry. This will move the industry towards greater scrap and secondary consumption as well as renewable sources of power for primary production.