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Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2018

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30 April 2018

Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2018

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. April turned out be a tumultuous month for the aluminium market. The market was still assessing the impact for global metal trade flows following the announcement of US Section 232 tariffs on aluminium, when on 6 April the US Treasury imposed sanctions on Rusal. The sanctions were unprecedented in their direct impact on the aluminium market and had the potential to be a permanent game changer for the aluminium market. The subsequent deadline extension has calmed market jitters for the time being. However, we expect volatile market conditions over the coming months.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
    • Japan
      • Japanese aluminium imports, 2017
    • South Korea
      • Shipments of flat-rolled products declining
      • Residential construction declines
    • North America
    • US
    • Europe
    • Summary of March production, kt
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since March, (kt)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since March, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 35 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • LME cash price and cash-three month spreads
  • Indexed LME prices, Jan 02 = 100
  • Big spike in LME aluminium price volatility
  • LME aluminium official cash price and open interest
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2011-2021
  • Global economic activity indicators mostly coming off recent highs
  • Global benchmark premia
  • Private sector improvement partially offset slower SOE investment
  • Near term manufacturing activity still broadly positive
  • Automotive output and sales growth moves into positive territory
  • Signs of recovery in the property market
  • US imports of can sheet
  • Chinese exports of FRPs to the US
  • North American shipments of extrusions
  • Chinese exports of semis to Europe
  • China SHFE/LME arbitrage for export of semis
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
  • Supply: Table 4
  • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO April 2018.xls

    XLS 534.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2018

    PDF 1.32 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2018

    ZIP 1.50 MB

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