Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2021

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The official cash LME price punched effortlessly through US$2300/t in mid-April. Since then prices have been testing the US$2400/t level. Meanwhile, premia across all major benchmark regions are hitting all-time highs as consumers continue to replenish low inventory levels and fulfil rising order books amid logistical constraints. Concerns over the near-term trajectory for primary metal supply, particularly in China, has also added to positive investor sentiment towards aluminium. In the absence of any pullback in investment fund buying, we expect prices to settle above the US$2400/t in the very short-term.