Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2024

In the absence of any fundamental catalysts, price action in August was dominated by movements in the US dollar and, by the end of the month, fears that Chinese demand may not strengthen by as much as had been expected. The market has now largely priced in a likely Federal Reserve rate cut in September. However, prices remain vulnerable to further softening in economic growth, uncertainty over the upcoming US presidential election and weak manufacturing sentiment. A cyclical recovery in global manufacturing and accelerating offtake from the energy transition should support higher a annual price in 2025.