Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2019
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Our base case global metal balance for 2020 shows a modest surplus. However, this is based on a critical assumption that producers will cut back output. Producers will only curtail production if their operations are expected to be unprofitable for a long period of time. There are reasons to believe that this may be the case over the period 2020-2022. With this looming uncertainty around producers’ supply response, there aluminium price is expected to remain under downward pressure for longer.
Table of contents
- China
-
Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 16 images and tables including:
- Late 2019 bounce in manufacturing activity, but is it sustainable?
- Is the worst over for the property sector?
- Infrastructure investment showing signs of stability
- Japanese production of rolled and extruded products
- US shipments of flat products
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since November, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2018-2021, (kt)
- Smelter production cuts
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since November, (kt)
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Net trade in European imports of rolled products
What's included
This report contains:
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