Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2022
Report summary
It’s been a volatile year for the aluminium market. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, ongoing Covid issues in China, recessionary fears and continued supply-chain issues have dominated price direction. December was no exception. News of a further relaxation in China’s Covid containment policy drove the cash price to just under US$2500/t. However, the rally petered out on the near-term impact of slowing economic activity in China from escalating infection rates as well as hawkish comments by the US Fed following another interest rates rise. The scene is set for another volatile year for prices. Visible inventories remain at historically low levels while there are on-going risks to supply growth in China and Europe against the backdrop of lower power availability and high energy costs. An uncertain macroeconomic outlook will further add to aluminium market risk.
Table of contents
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 27 images and tables including:
- Continued deterioration in manufacturing activity
- Fixed asset investment (FAI) slowing
- Construction activity at rock bottom
- Auto output and sales fall on weak consumer sentiment
- Japan domestic shipments of rolled and extruded products
- German semis output tumbles
- Summary of November production, kt
- Germany aluminium production
- Europe cuts (kt)
- Global monthly output (annualised)
- Power load and aluminium capacity of Guizhou smelters
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2021-2024, (kt)
- China new alumina capacity in 2022 and 2023, ktpa
- World ex-China alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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