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Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook December

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23 December 2021

Global aluminium short-term outlook December

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. It’s not often that aluminium is ranked as the best performing metal out of the major LME base metals. 2021 has certainly been an extraordinary year for the light metal. The 31% gain in the official cash price since the start of 2021 was driven by several factors. China’s energy crisis and policies constrained output growth while some smelters in the world ex-China also suffered from rising energy costs. All of this came at a time when demand growth was rebounding rapidly, especially in the developed world. However, the risks are mounting for demand growth in 2022, while world ex-China supply is projected to rebound strongly. Nevertheless, we expect China to continue to curb output growth which will result in another year of deficit for the global aluminium market.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

  • Manufacturing activity slowing
  • Fixed asset investment slowing, but manufacturing holding up better
  • Covid-19 outbreaks drags retail sales down
  • Modest improvement in construction activity, but from a low base
  • US shipments of flat rolled products
  • US production of castings
  • China smelter capacity changes in 2021-2025, ktpa
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina disruptions
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook December

    PDF 1.26 MB