Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2022
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Having hit a low of US$2600/t in the first week of December, the official LME cash price moved US$200/t higher by the end of 2021. Since then the price has been on a sharp upward trajectory, propelled by more primary metal cuts in Europe, a solid return to demand growth and rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine. At the time of writing the price was trading either side of US$3100/t. The tightness in metal availability saw the cash to three-month spread moving from a US$18/t contango in early January to a US$24/t backwardation at month-end. The market is set for a period of high prices and mounting uncertainty.
Table of contents
- China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 27 images and tables including:
- Investment growth slipping except for manufacturing
- Manufacturing activity picks up ahead of the Chinese New Year
- Retail sales continue to slide
- Property market weakness triggers monetary stimulus
- EU imports of PSS from China
- US shipments of flat rolled products
- Power price by market
- Europe smelting cuts
- Alro power supplier
- Summary of December production, kt
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Ireland alumina exports 2021
- Spot alumina price
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
- Potential production loss at Shandong and Henan refineries
- World ex-China alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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