Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2021

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30 July 2021

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2021

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Resilient demand and supply disruptions will result in a small deficit in the global balance in 2021. This is price supportive with LME quotes now comfortably trading above the US$2550/t level. At the time of writing, news of curbs on power consumption at Chinese smelters in Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou has pushed the LME price above $2600/t while the ShFE settlement price hit an 11 year high at just below the RMB10,000/t level. However, higher metal supply and softer demand growth should pull prices lower over the next two years.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • Favourable ShFE-LME arbitrage and firm demand driving aluminium imports
  • Manufacturing activity eases in June
  • Fixed asset investment slowing
  • Slowing investment suggests a lower growth trajectory in H2 2021
  • Property market growth easing
  • Japanese production of semis
  • US shipments of flat-rolled products
  • US shipments of extrusions
  • Summary of June production, kt
  • China restarts (kt)
  • Global annualised output rates
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price US$/t
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
  • China refinery cuts
  • World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2021

    PDF 1.31 MB