Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 30 July 2021

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Resilient demand and supply disruptions will result in a small deficit in the global balance in 2021. This is price supportive with LME quotes now comfortably trading above the US$2550/t level. At the time of writing, news of curbs on power consumption at Chinese smelters in Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou has pushed the LME price above $2600/t while the ShFE settlement price hit an 11 year high at just below the RMB10,000/t level. However, higher metal supply and softer demand growth should pull prices lower over the next two years.

China
Asia ex-China
Europe
North America
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

Favourable ShFE-LME arbitrage and firm demand driving aluminium imports
Manufacturing activity eases in June
Fixed asset investment slowing

Slowing investment suggests a lower growth trajectory in H2 2021
Property market growth easing
Japanese production of semis
US shipments of flat-rolled products
US shipments of extrusions
Summary of June production, kt
China restarts (kt)
Global annualised output rates
Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
Spot alumina price US$/t
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
China refinery cuts
World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
China smelter grade alumina balance
Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
World ex-China alumina regions
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global aluminium prices and premia
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)