Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2021

Get this report

$2,500

You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

30 July 2021

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2021

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Resilient demand and supply disruptions will result in a small deficit in the global balance in 2021. This is price supportive with LME quotes now comfortably trading above the US$2550/t level. At the time of writing, news of curbs on power consumption at Chinese smelters in Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou has pushed the LME price above $2600/t while the ShFE settlement price hit an 11 year high at just below the RMB10,000/t level. However, higher metal supply and softer demand growth should pull prices lower over the next two years.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • Favourable ShFE-LME arbitrage and firm demand driving aluminium imports
  • Manufacturing activity eases in June
  • Fixed asset investment slowing
  • Slowing investment suggests a lower growth trajectory in H2 2021
  • Property market growth easing
  • Japanese production of semis
  • US shipments of flat-rolled products
  • US shipments of extrusions
  • Summary of June production, kt
  • China restarts (kt)
  • Global annualised output rates
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price US$/t
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
  • China refinery cuts
  • World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2021

    PDF 1.31 MB