Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2019
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Our latest calculations for the global primary aluminium market balance continues to show a deficit in excess of 1 Mt for 2019. We forecast the market to remain tight over the 2020-2021 period with days of consumption falling to levels that should trigger a sustained upward price response. However, the risk to our near term market balance is shifting towards a lower market shortfall. Demand growth is slowing across all major consuming regions while output growth looks set to accelerate over the remainder of 2019, particularly in China.
Table of contents
- China
-
Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 26 images and tables including:
- Property market activity remains sluggish amid tighter shanty town financing
- No end in sight to downturn in automotive output and sales for now
- Infrastructure investment to benefit from recent policy easing
- Chinese exports of major semis
- Japanese production of semis
- South Korean production of semis
- North American shipments of extrusions
- Shipments of sheet and plate
- US shipments and trade in can sheet
- US imports of common alloys and foil
- Impact of Becancour smelter's restart and curtailment (kt)
- Summary of May production, kt
- Non-IAI smelter output forecast by country
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since May, (kt)
- Spot alumina price, US$/t
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2018-2021, (kt)
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since May, (kt)
- Low-temperature refinery line conversions in Northern China
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global alumina production (kt)
- Global primary aluminium production (kt)
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- EU and Turkey exports of PSS and foil to the US
- China exports of semis to the EU
What's included
This report contains:
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