Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 30 June 2022

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Report summary

Investor sentiment towards aluminium has swung between elevated risks of smelter supply and concerns over the health of the global economy. The latter very much dominated LME price action during June, with demand concerns overtaking the possibility of further metal production cuts as we move into the second half of 2022. The official cash price ended May just above US$2800/t but quickly succumbed to selling pressure, moving well below US$2500/t by month end.

Supply-demand balances
China
Europe
North America
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 35 images and tables including:

LME cash price and cash-3 month spreads
LME price change since start of 2022
LME price change since 2022 peak price

Manufacturing output slipping
Global supply-demand balance and stocks in days of consumption
Cancelled warrants remain elevated
Acceleration in Chinese primary aluminium exports
Sellers in the ascendancy
Global benchmark premia
Recovery in manufacturing activity but from a low base
Weak investment activity
Construction activity remains sluggish
Automotive production recovery ahead of sales
Chinese exports of semis to Europe
Shipments of plate, sheet and strip
Summary of May production, kt
Europe power price forecast
World ex-China aluminium supply trend
Global monthly output (annualised)
Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
Spot alumina price
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2021-2024, (kt)
China alumina exports, kt
World ex-China alumina balance
China smelter grade alumina balance
Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
World ex-China alumina regions
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global aluminium prices and premia
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)