Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2018
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Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The LME aluminium price tumbled towards $2000/t in March having hit a multi-year high in mid February at $2266/t. Rising global trade tensions, the continued build in SHFE stocks and a likely resumption of Chinese output growth following the winter cuts weighed heavily on market sentiment.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Supply-demand balances
- Manufacturing activity in all major economies in growth mode for now
- Global benchmark premia
-
Demand
- China
-
Japan
- Japanese semis output
- South Korea
- Thailand
- North America
- US
- Europe
-
Supply
- Summary of February production, kt
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since February, (kt)
Tables and charts
This report includes 28 images and tables including:
- Aluminium key forecasts
- Supply-demand balances: Image 1
- A more pronounced global slowdown becoming a major risk
- Global supply-demand balance, 2011-2020
- SHFE stocks moving higher despite smelter cutbacks and decent demand growth
- LME cash-price and cash-three month spreads
- Supply-demand balances: Image 6
- Sharp divergence between the official NBS and Caixin PMI's
- China's EV output jumps spectacularly in early 2018, but from a low 2017 base
- Rising land sales in 2017 could pose upside risk to the real estate sector
- South Korea plate, sheet and strip imports
- North American shipments of extrusions
- Chinese exports of sheet and foil to the US
- North American shipments of can sheet
- Chinese exports of semis to the EU
- Supply: Table 1
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since January, (kt)
- Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
- Supply: Table 4
- Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global alumina production (kt)
- Global primary aluminium production (kt)
- Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Demand: Image 4
- Japanese housing starts plunge
What's included
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