Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2018

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29 March 2018

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2018

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The LME aluminium price tumbled towards $2000/t in March having hit a multi-year high in mid February at $2266/t. Rising global trade tensions, the continued build in SHFE stocks and a likely resumption of Chinese output growth following the winter cuts weighed heavily on market sentiment.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Manufacturing activity in all major economies in growth mode for now
    • Global benchmark premia
    • China
    • Japan
      • Japanese semis output
    • South Korea
    • Thailand
    • North America
    • US
    • Europe
    • Summary of February production, kt
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since February, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 28 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • A more pronounced global slowdown becoming a major risk
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2011-2020
  • SHFE stocks moving higher despite smelter cutbacks and decent demand growth
  • LME cash-price and cash-three month spreads
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
  • Sharp divergence between the official NBS and Caixin PMI's
  • China's EV output jumps spectacularly in early 2018, but from a low 2017 base
  • Rising land sales in 2017 could pose upside risk to the real estate sector
  • South Korea plate, sheet and strip imports
  • North American shipments of extrusions
  • Chinese exports of sheet and foil to the US
  • North American shipments of can sheet
  • Chinese exports of semis to the EU
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since January, (kt)
  • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Japanese housing starts plunge

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO March 2018.xls

    XLS 534.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2018

    PDF 966.28 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2018

    ZIP 1.12 MB

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