Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2018

Get this report


You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

29 March 2018

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2018

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The LME aluminium price tumbled towards $2000/t in March having hit a multi-year high in mid February at $2266/t. Rising global trade tensions, the continued build in SHFE stocks and a likely resumption of Chinese output growth following the winter cuts weighed heavily on market sentiment.

Table of contents

  • Manufacturing activity in all major economies in growth mode for now
  • Global benchmark premia
  • China
    • Japan
    • Japanese semis output
    • South Korea
    • Thailand
    • North America
    • US
    • Europe
    • Summary of February production, kt
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since February, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

  • A more pronounced global slowdown becoming a major risk
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2011-2020
  • SHFE stocks moving higher despite smelter cutbacks and decent demand growth
  • LME cash-price and cash-three month spreads
  • Sharp divergence between the official NBS and Caixin PMI's
  • China's EV output jumps spectacularly in early 2018, but from a low 2017 base
  • Rising land sales in 2017 could pose upside risk to the real estate sector
  • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
  • Japanese housing starts plunge
  • South Korea plate, sheet and strip imports
  • North American shipments of extrusions
  • Chinese exports of sheet and foil to the US
  • North American shipments of can sheet
  • Chinese exports of semis to the EU
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since January, (kt)
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2018

    PDF 1.19 MB