Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2018

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31 May 2018

Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2018

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. After the turbulence in late April, the aluminium market returned to some kind of normality. While an immediate supply crunch has been avoided, there is nervousness in the market. LME prices are trading close to $2300/t reflecting a ‘supply’ premium in the price – nobody wants to be short metal. If, as seems likely, the US imposes a 10% duty on EU aluminium exports, we expect to see further volatility in the market over the coming months.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
    • Japan
      • Japanese semis output change
    • North America
    • US
    • Europe
    • Summary of April production, kt
    • Forecast of China capacity change, kt
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since April, (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since April, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Indexed LME cash prices (2 January 2018 = 100)
  • Global demand growth continues to be supported by expansionary manufacturing activity
  • LME cash price and cash-3 month spread
  • LME, SHFE, IAI stocks (end month) and LME cash price (month average)
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2011-2021
  • Global benchmark premia
  • Near-term manufacturing activity still largely positive
  • Fixed asset investment
  • Property sector growth dips in April
  • Us production of automotive sheet
  • Sectoral demand for castings
  • Secondary versus primary use of aluminium in the foundry industry
  • US scrap exports
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Demand: Image 5
  • South Korea semis output

What's included

This report contains:

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