Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 May 2018

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. After the turbulence in late April, the aluminium market returned to some kind of normality. While an immediate supply crunch has been avoided, there is nervousness in the market. LME prices are trading close to $2300/t reflecting a ‘supply’ premium in the price – nobody wants to be short metal. If, as seems likely, the US imposes a 10% duty on EU aluminium exports, we expect to see further volatility in the market over the coming months.

China
Japan
- Japanese semis output change
North America
US
Europe
- Summary of April production, kt
- Forecast of China capacity change, kt
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since April, (kt)
Alumina Market Developments
- Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
- Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since April, (kt)