The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. After the turbulence in late April, the aluminium market returned to some kind of normality. While an immediate supply crunch has been avoided, there is nervousness in the market. LME prices are trading close to $2300/t reflecting a ‘supply’ premium in the price – nobody wants to be short metal. If, as seems likely, the US imposes a 10% duty on EU aluminium exports, we expect to see further volatility in the market over the coming months.