Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2018

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31 May 2018

Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2018

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. After the turbulence in late April, the aluminium market returned to some kind of normality. While an immediate supply crunch has been avoided, there is nervousness in the market. LME prices are trading close to $2300/t reflecting a ‘supply’ premium in the price – nobody wants to be short metal. If, as seems likely, the US imposes a 10% duty on EU aluminium exports, we expect to see further volatility in the market over the coming months.

Table of contents

  • China
    • Japanese semis output change
  • North America
  • US
    • Summary of April production, kt
    • Forecast of China capacity change, kt
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since April, (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since April, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

  • Near-term manufacturing activity still largely positive
  • Fixed asset investment
  • Property sector growth dips in April
  • Us production of automotive sheet
  • Sectoral demand for castings
  • Secondary versus primary use of aluminium in the foundry industry
  • US scrap exports
  • South Korea semis output
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2018

    PDF 1.19 MB