Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2022

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Discussions with industry participants during LME Week point to a bearish outlook for the market over the next 6-12 months. Prospects over a potential ban on Russian metal by the LME and/or the US failed to stir any meaningful upward price response. Nevertheless, the risk of reduced metal flows from Russia together with the likelihood of further power cost-related smelter cutbacks in Europe did push the official cash price from a low of US$2079/t in the final week of September to a high of US$2354/t in the first week of October. Since then the price has continued to drift lower as concerns over the outlook for demand have dominated market sentiment. We note that any upward movement in the price is within the context of what is still a bear market.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

  • Manufacturing activity subdued
  • Infrastructure investment doing the heavy lifting in supporting economic growth
  • Construction activity still falling
  • Surprising increase in German semis production
  • Chinese semis exports to Europe falling rapidly
  • US & Canada – Shipments of rolled products
  • US & Canada – Shipments of extrusions
  • Summary of September production, kt
  • Norway power market and aluminium smelters, Sep 2022 EUR MWh
  • Power price Norway and Sweden
  • Opportunity cost of selling power versus producing aluminium
  • Global monthly output (annualised)
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2021-2024, (kt)
  • China alumina cuts, (kt)
  • China alumina exports, kt
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2022

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