Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2020
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. There has been little change to our fundamental outlook for the global aluminium market balance. We maintain our view that the market is headed for a period of significant oversupply. We estimate ROW demand to contract sharply in 2020 and returning to growth in 2021 and 2022. However, demand growth could disappoint next year. The risk of a second coronavirus wave is growing – data in several countries is now pointing to rising infection rates as lockdown restrictions are lifted. So is the fear of further restrictive lockdown measures. Meanwhile, demand continues to improve in China, but some of this growth is being taken from 2021 and will cap offtake next year. All the while, LME prices continue to trade above US$1700/t and providing producers with margin comfort.
Table of contents
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Stimulus measures continue to support economic activity
- Easier lending conditions boosts property market, but still in contraction
- Surge in power generation investment
- Infrastructure projects are largely driven by state-owned enterprise investment
- Chinese exports of aluminium semis to Asia
- Malaysian exports of aluminium wire
- Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU
- US shipments of flat-rolled products
- US imports of flat-rolled products
- Summary of August production, kt
- India smelter monthly output
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- 17 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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