Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2021

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Acceleration in power related production curbs in China, firm demand growth, falling visible inventories and tight metal availability drove the LME cash price to within touching distance of US$3000/t during the month. Prices are up 46% since the start of 2021, eclipsing gains made by the other base metals with the notable exception of tin, up by 72%. Indeed, aluminium prices have been rallying every month since February. However, the rally in September was notable. The cash price gained 11% since the start of the month at a time when other metals were either flat or marginally lower.