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Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2021

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30 September 2021

Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2021

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Acceleration in power related production curbs in China, firm demand growth, falling visible inventories and tight metal availability drove the LME cash price to within touching distance of US$3000/t during the month. Prices are up 46% since the start of 2021, eclipsing gains made by the other base metals with the notable exception of tin, up by 72%. Indeed, aluminium prices have been rallying every month since February. However, the rally in September was notable. The cash price gained 11% since the start of the month at a time when other metals were either flat or marginally lower.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 24 images and tables including:

  • Caixin PMI falls below 50 - the first time since April 2020
  • Bounce in retail sales fizzling out
  • Key indicators of investment slipping from post-Covid bounce
  • Evergrande crisis will weigh on the property sector
  • Japanese production of semis
  • US shipments of extrusions
  • US shipments of flat-rolled products
  • Summary of August production, kt
  • Global annualised output rates
  • ROW idle capacity, kt
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
  • World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2021

    PDF 1.29 MB