Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2021
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Acceleration in power related production curbs in China, firm demand growth, falling visible inventories and tight metal availability drove the LME cash price to within touching distance of US$3000/t during the month. Prices are up 46% since the start of 2021, eclipsing gains made by the other base metals with the notable exception of tin, up by 72%. Indeed, aluminium prices have been rallying every month since February. However, the rally in September was notable. The cash price gained 11% since the start of the month at a time when other metals were either flat or marginally lower.
Table of contents
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 24 images and tables including:
- Caixin PMI falls below 50 - the first time since April 2020
- Bounce in retail sales fizzling out
- Key indicators of investment slipping from post-Covid bounce
- Evergrande crisis will weigh on the property sector
- Japanese production of semis
- US shipments of extrusions
- US shipments of flat-rolled products
- Summary of August production, kt
- Global annualised output rates
- ROW idle capacity, kt
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
- World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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