Global aluminium strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
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Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
- Alumina long-term outlook
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
-
Bauxite medium-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2022
-
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- India
- Europe
- North America
- United States
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
-
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capacity 2022-2050
- Asia
- Asia ex-China
- China
- Europe
- Middle East
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
-
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2022-2050
- Asia
- China
- India
- Vietnam
-
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
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Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
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Long term price, incentive price, risks and IRR methodology
- Incentive price
- Long term price
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Risks around the incentive price
- Bauxite pricing
Tables and charts
This report includes 46 images and tables including:
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Long term price forecast at US$430/t – Incentive price US$500
- Average alumina prices, 1991-2050 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, (92% utilisation) 2010-2050, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2050, Mtpa
- Global alumina balance and prices
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
- Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
- Main changes in aluminium production since the previous quarter
- Main changes in alumina production since the previous quarter
- Regional seaborne bauxite supply, 2000-2040 CAGR 2000-2021, 2022-2031, 2032-2040
- Global bauxite supply and demand, with projects, Mt (dry)
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
- Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
- Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
- Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Long term price forecast at US$3400/t (real 2023 $) – Incentive price US$2800
- Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2050 and long-term price (US$/t)
- Base case and low price scenario balances and stock days of consumption
- Base case, high and low price scenarios
- Base case and high price scenario balances and stock days of consumption
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q4 2022 (Mt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption growth
- Global secondary consumption to grow by 3.3% p.a. to 2050
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2022 vs Q1 2023 (kt)
- Primary consumption to peak in 2028
- Total consumption by end-use sector
- Non-residential construction growth set for 1% p.a. decline between 2023 to 2050
- Indian demand set to grow by a healthy 4.3% p.a. between 2023-2050
- Total consumption by end-use sector in Europe
- Total consumption by end-use sector in US
- Available replacement capacity declined while the utilisation rate grew at Chinese smelters, ktpa
- ROW aluminium new supply
- Regional aluminium smelter production capability – Mt
- Eight smelters in Xinjiang account for a total of 6.3 Mtpa capacity, ktpa
- Curtailed European aluminium capacity
- Europe aluminium cuts
- China alumina supply and demand cap, 2020-2028
- Regional alumina refinery production capability – Mt
- China’s alumina capacity change and highly probable projects, ktpa
What's included
This report contains:
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