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Commodity Market Report 22 March 2024

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Report summary

The global aluminium strategic planning outlook provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2050. The aluminium market outlook is being increasingly shaped by decarbonisation. On the demand side we see an acceleration in demand from the energy transition sector together with rising offtake of secondary aluminium over the next two decades. Meanwhile, aluminium producers are now starting to reach beyond primary and integrating recycled metal. However, there will be huge challenges to fully decarbonise the primary metal part of the value chain.

Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
Alumina long-term outlook
Aluminium medium-term outlook
Alumina medium-term outlook
Bauxite medium-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2023
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- India
- Europe
- North America
- United States
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capacity 2023-2050
- Asia
- Indonesia
- India
- China
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2023-2050
- Asia
- China
- India
- Oceania
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
Long term price, incentive price, risks and IRR methodology
- Incentive price
- Long term price
Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
Risks around the incentive price
Bauxite pricing

Tables and charts

This report includes 47 images and tables including:

Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location: Brownfield capacity
Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location: Greenfield capacity
Long term price forecast at US$430/t – Incentive price US$500

Average alumina prices, 1991-2050 and incentive price (US$/t)
Global aluminium balance and prices
Primary aluminium demand and capacity, (92% utilisation) 2010-2050, Mtpa
Stock days of consumption and price
Global supply-demand balance
The slow road to decarbonising primary aluminium smelting
Stock days and price
Smelter grade alumina balance
Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2050, Mtpa
Global alumina balance and prices
Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
Main changes in aluminium production since the previous quarter
Main changes in alumina production since the previous quarter
Global bauxite supply and demand, with projects, Mt (dry)
Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location: Brownfield capacity
Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location: Greenfield capacity
Long term average price forecast at US$3400/t (real 2024 $) – Incentive price US$2800
Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2050 and long-term price (US$/t)
Base case and low price scenario balances and stock days of consumption
Base case, high and low price scenarios
Base case and high price scenario balances and stock days of consumption
Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q4 2023 (Mt)
Global primary aluminium consumption growth
Global secondary consumption to grow at a healthy 3.3% p.a. to 2050
Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2023 vs Q1 2024 (kt)
Primary consumption to peak in 2029
Total consumption by end-use sector
Non-residential construction
Asia ex-China total aluminium demand by end-use
Indian demand set to grow by a healthy pace between 2024-2050
Total consumption by end-use sector in Europe
Total consumption by end-use sector in US
ROW aluminium new supply
Regional aluminium smelter production capability – Mt
Adaro greenfield project timeline
China’s new aluminium supply and highly probable projects, ktpa
Production shares of China’s alumina supply by province, 2014-2024
Regional alumina refinery production capability – Mt
China’s alumina capacity change and highly probable project, ktpa