Global aluminium strategic planning outlook Q2 2024 Report

Commodity Market Report 21 June 2024

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Report summary

The aluminium strategic planning outlook is published in March and June and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium market fundamentals out to 2050 together with supporting tables. Demand is forecast to grow at reasonable pace over the medium-term following a period of weakness. We see a structural uplift further out, driven by rising offtake from the energy transition sectors. However, the need to decarbonise the aluminium value chain will result in scrap and secondary aluminium meeting the incremental growth in demand to the market. Global smelter production is forecast to grow at a modest pace over the current decade and remain stable out to 2050. Future capacity investment will come at a higher cost as the industry searches for less emissions intensive solutions to feed smelting.