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Commodity Market Report

Global bulk steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2022

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Bulk steel alloy prices reached record levels in H2 2021 due to supply tightness and high costs. In China, supply cuts were initially driven by emissions-led output curbs and later power supply constraints. Output returned in Q4 2021 as power constraints were resolved, and prices have softened since. Conversely, international markets remain fraught with supply-side constraints and high energy costs. This, in part, reflects the blowback from the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Our base case across the bulk alloys assumes that these impacts will begin to settle in H2 2022. This will allow international alloy prices to soften. There is abundant capacity to meet demand across the bulk alloys and prices will revert to their long-term, cost-based fundamentals. For manganese alloys and ferrochrome, this will be at a higher plane compared to historical levels – in part, due to a higher ore price forecast.

Table of contents

  • Crude steel and stainless steel: China’s crude steel to peak this year
  • Moderate growth offered by stainless steel and alloy steels
  • Prices in western markets remain supported as China reverts to long-term fundamentals
  • China remains crucial to long-term supply, despite a scaledown in capacity
  • Silicon metal’s exposure to clean energy technologies means stronger growth than ferrosilicon
  • Regulatory intervention and coronavirus outbreak key risks in China, along with Ukraine-Russia crisis in global markets
    • Chromium ore price forecast
    • Ferrochrome price forecast
    • Risks to the base case
    • Risks to forecast UG2 supply
    • Developments in China’s ferrochrome industry
    • South African ore export tax
    • Stainless steel
    • Manganese ore
    • Manganese ore price forecast
    • Manganese alloy (SiMn and FeMn) market balance
    • Manganese alloy price forecast
    • Manganese metal market balance
    • Key risks to the base case price forecasts
    • Ferrosilicon
    • Ferrosilicon price forecast
    • Silicon metal
    • Silicon metal price forecast
    • Key risks to ferrosilicon and silicon metal base case price forecasts
  • Crude steel trends
  • Stainless steel trends
    • Background
    • Latest outlook
    • Ferrochrome consumption
  • Manganese
    • Ferrosilicon
    • Silicon metal
    • Chromium ore supply
    • Chromium ore costs
    • Ferrochrome supply
    • Ferrochrome costs
    • Manganese ore supply
    • Manganese ore costs
    • Manganese alloy supply
    • Manganese alloy costs
    • Manganese metal supply outlook
    • Ferrosilicon
    • Silicon metal

Tables and charts

This report includes 64 images and tables including:

  • Chromium ore supply-demand balance outlook
  • Base case outlook for ferrochrome supply
  • Ferrochrome supply-demand balance outlook
  • Ferrochrome supply-demand balance outlook with regional supply breakdown
  • Ferrosilicon and silicon metal consumption
  • Forecast crude steel production
  • Forecast crude stainless steel production
  • Outlook for global average manganese intensity of crude steel
  • Manganese alloy and metal consumption outlook
  • Manganese consumption by first use
  • Summary of manganese demand outlook by first use (kt Mn contained)
  • Chromium ore price outlook
  • South African primary 42-44% concentrate price and premia for other key ore prices, CIF China
  • High-carbon ferrochrome price outlook
  • China tender high-carbon ferrochrome price and premia on other key ferrochrome prices
  • Manganese ore supply-demand balance outlook
  • High-grade 44% manganese ore price outlook
  • Silicomanganese supply-demand balance outlook
  • High-carbon ferromanganese supply-demand balance outlook
  • Silicomanganese price outlook
  • High-carbon ferromanganese price outlook
  • Summary of forecast manganese alloy prices - US$/t
  • Manganese metal supply-demand balance outlook
  • Manganese metal and MC FeMn price outlook
  • Ferrosilicon supply-demand balance outlook
  • Ferrosilicon (75%) price price outlook
  • Forecast standard 75% ferrosilicon price forecast summary
  • Silicon metal supply-demand balance outlook
  • Silicon metal price outlook
  • Forecast silicon metal price forecast summary
  • Chromium consumption outlook to 2050 by first use
  • Outlook for chromium consumption in stainless steel by region
  • Outlook ferrochrome demand breakdown by application (kt 55% Cr basis)
  • Ferrosilicon consumption by application
  • Ferrosilicon consumption by steel type
  • Average forecast ferrosilicon demand by first use (kt)
  • Global share of ferrosilicon demand by region
  • Silicon metal consumption by application
  • Average forecast silicon metal demand by first use (kt)
  • Global share of silicon metal demand by region
  • Chromium ore and concentrate production by country, 2022e
  • Global chromite capacity total cash cost curve (by-product adjsuted), idle vs operational capacity, 2022e
  • Chromium ore supply outlook by region
  • Summary of long term chromium ore production forecast (kt)
  • Major chromium ore producer total cash costs, 2022e
  • Major chromium ore producer ex-works costs, 2022e
  • Top-10 high-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome production capacity by company
  • High-carbon ferrochrome supply outlook
  • Summary of long term high-carbon ferrochrome production forecast (kt, gross weight)
  • Global cash cost curve for high-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome, 2022e
  • High-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome cash costs by region and component, 2022e
  • Manganese ore production, 2000 to 2021: Mt gross weight versus Mt contained Mn
  • Manganese ore supply outlook, by region
  • Cash cost curve for manganese ore (basis 44% Mn), 2022e
  • Silicomanganese supply outlook
  • High-carbon ferromanganese supply outlook
  • Global FOB cash cost curve for silicomanganese, including silicomanganese used in the production of medium- and low-carbon ferromanganese, 2022e
  • Global FOB cash cost curve for high-carbon ferromanganese, including high-carbon ferromanganese used in the production of medium- and low-carbon ferromanganese, 2022e
  • Ferrosilicon supply outlook
  • Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for ferrosilicon, by cost component, 2022e
  • Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for ferrosilicon, by region, 2022e
  • Silicon metal supply outlook
  • Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for silicon metal, by cost component, 2022e
  • Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for silicon metal, by region, 2022e

What's included

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    Global bulk steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2022

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