Data & analytics solutions

Commodity Market Report 04 April 2023

Get this report

$10,000

You can pay by card or invoice

Share link

First name
Last name
Job Title
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

Submit Category

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

Report summary

After a year marred by gloomy macroeconomic sentiment and weak end-use consumption, most western economies are set perform better than initially feared prior to Q4 2022. Along with the "reopening" of China, following a year of disruptive lockdowns, this will provide a boost to bulk alloy consumption over the early-2020s. Beyond this, a decline in China's crude steel output will undermine consumption, though stainless steel will provide some upside for ferrochrome and ferrosilicon. Due to slower long-term demand growth, bulk alloy markets will be adequately supplied by existing capacity and known projects, through much of the outlook.

Crude steel and stainless steel: India to provide only limited offset on China decline
Demand: Moderate growth to bulk alloys offered by stainless steel and specialty steels
Prices: Despite softening costs, some alloy prices remain below costs fundamentals and will rebound
Supply: China remains crucial to long-term supply, despite a scale-down in capacity
Silicon metal’s role in renewable energy means stronger demand growth than ferrosilicon
Chromium
- Chromium ore
- Chromium ore price forecast
- Ferrochrome
- Ferrochrome price forecast
- Risks to the base case
- Risks to forecast UG2 supply
- Developments in China
- Developments in South Africa
- Currency movements
- Stainless steel
Manganese
- Manganese ore
- Manganese ore price forecast
- Manganese alloy (SiMn and FeMn) market balance
- Manganese alloy price forecast
- Manganese metal market balance
- Manganese metal and medium-carbon ferromanganese (MC FeMn) price outlook
- High-purity manganese sulphate market balance
- High-purity manganese sulphate price outlook
- Key risks to the base case price forecasts
Silicon
- Ferrosilicon
- Ferrosilicon price forecast
- Silicon metal
- Silicon metal price forecast
- Key risks to ferrosilicon and silicon metal base case price forecasts
Crude steel production trends
- Chinese output to edge up, India will continue to ride the momentum in 2023
- India and Southeast Asia to be the torchbearers for long-term supply growth; Chinese output falls amid dwindling demand
Stainless steel production trends
Chromium
Manganese
- Manganese in batteries
Silicon
- Ferrosilicon
- Ferrosilicon in steel
- Ferrosilicon in cast iron
- Ferrosilicon in magnesium
- Silicon metal
- Silicon metal in aluminium
- Silicon metal in silicones
- Silicon metal in polysilicon
- Silicon metal in battery anodes
Chromium
- Chromium ore supply
- Chromium ore cash costs
- Ferrochrome supply
- Ferrochrome cash costs
Manganese
- Manganese ore supply
- Manganese ore cash costs
- Manganese alloy supply
- Manganese alloy cash costs
- Manganese metal supply
Ferrosilicon
- Ferrosilicon supply
- Ferrosilicon cash costs
Silicon metal
- Silicon metal supply
- Silicon metal cash costs

Tables and charts

This report includes 59 images and tables including:

Forecast crude stainless steel production
Chromium consumption outlook to 2050 by first use
Consumption of ferrochrome by steel type

Chromium ore and ferrochrome demand
Outlook for global average manganese intensity of crude steel
Manganese alloy and metal consumption outlook
Manganese consumption by first use
Chromium ore supply-demand balance outlook
Future requirement for chromium ore supply
South African 42-44% LG-MG ore vs 40-42% UG2 price outlook - real forecast
South African 42-44% LG-MG ore vs Turkish 40-42 % ore price outlook - real forecast
Ferrochrome supply-demand balance outlook
Future requirement for ferrochrome capacity
Long-term price forecast for high-carbon ferrochrome
Manganese ore supply-demand balance outlook
High-grade 44% manganese ore price outlook
Silicomanganese supply-demand balance outlook
High-carbon ferromanganese supply-demand balance outlook
Silicomanganese price outlook
High-carbon ferromanganese price outlook
Manganese metal supply-demand balance outlook
Manganese metal and MC FeMn price outlook
High-purity manganese sulphate global supply-demand balance outlook – 90% utilisation assumed for all capacity
High-purity manganese sulphate supply-demand balance outlook, China – 90% utilisation assumed for all capacity
High-purity manganese sulphate global supply-demand balance outlook, ROW – 90% utilisation assumed for all capacity
High-purity manganese sulphate price outlook
Ferrosilicon supply-demand balance outlook
Ferrosilicon (75%) price price outlook
Silicon metal supply-demand balance outlook
Silicon metal price outlook
Forecast crude steel production
Manganese consumption in Li-ion batteries, by form
Ferrosilicon consumption by application
Ferrosilicon consumption by steel type
Silicon metal consumption by application
Chromium ore production by major producing companies*, 2023, with additional output by 2030
Chromium ore supply outlook by region
Global chromite capacity total cash cost curve by region, 2023
Major chromite ore producer total cash costs, 2023
Major chromium ore producer ex-works costs, 2023
Top-10 high-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome production capacity by company
High-carbon ferrochrome supply outlook
Global high-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome cash cost curve, 2023 (US¢/lb Cr, CIF China basis)
High-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome cash costs by region and component, 2023
Manganese ore production, 2000 to 2022: Mt gross weight versus Mt contained Mn
Manganese ore supply outlook, by region
Cash cost curve for manganese ore (basis 44% Mn), 2023
Silicomanganese supply outlook
High-carbon ferromanganese supply outlook
Global FOB cash cost curve for silicomanganese, including silicomanganese used in the production of medium- and low-carbon ferromanganese, 2023
Global FOB cash cost curve for high-carbon ferromanganese, including high-carbon ferromanganese used in the production of medium- and low-carbon ferromanganese, 2023
Ferrosilicon supply outlook
Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for ferrosilicon, by cost component, 2023
Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for ferrosilicon, by region, 2023
Silicon metal supply outlook
Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for silicon metal, by cost component, 2023
Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for silicon metal, by region, 2023