Commodity Market Report
Global bulk steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023
Report summary
After a year marred by gloomy macroeconomic sentiment and weak end-use consumption, most western economies are set perform better than initially feared prior to Q4 2022. Along with the "reopening" of China, following a year of disruptive lockdowns, this will provide a boost to bulk alloy consumption over the early-2020s. Beyond this, a decline in China's crude steel output will undermine consumption, though stainless steel will provide some upside for ferrochrome and ferrosilicon. Due to slower long-term demand growth, bulk alloy markets will be adequately supplied by existing capacity and known projects, through much of the outlook.
Table of contents
- Crude steel and stainless steel: India to provide only limited offset on China decline
- Demand: Moderate growth to bulk alloys offered by stainless steel and specialty steels
- Prices: Despite softening costs, some alloy prices remain below costs fundamentals and will rebound
- Supply: China remains crucial to long-term supply, despite a scale-down in capacity
- Silicon metal’s role in renewable energy means stronger demand growth than ferrosilicon
-
Chromium
- Chromium ore
- Chromium ore price forecast
- Ferrochrome
- Ferrochrome price forecast
- Risks to the base case
- Risks to forecast UG2 supply
- Developments in China
- Developments in South Africa
- Currency movements
- Stainless steel
-
Manganese
- Manganese ore
- Manganese ore price forecast
- Manganese alloy (SiMn and FeMn) market balance
- Manganese alloy price forecast
- Manganese metal market balance
- Manganese metal and medium-carbon ferromanganese (MC FeMn) price outlook
- High-purity manganese sulphate market balance
- High-purity manganese sulphate price outlook
- Key risks to the base case price forecasts
-
Silicon
- Ferrosilicon
- Ferrosilicon price forecast
- Silicon metal
- Silicon metal price forecast
- Key risks to ferrosilicon and silicon metal base case price forecasts
-
Crude steel production trends
- Chinese output to edge up, India will continue to ride the momentum in 2023
- India and Southeast Asia to be the torchbearers for long-term supply growth; Chinese output falls amid dwindling demand
- Stainless steel production trends
- Chromium
-
Manganese
- Manganese in batteries
-
Silicon
- Ferrosilicon
- Ferrosilicon in steel
- Ferrosilicon in cast iron
- Ferrosilicon in magnesium
- Silicon metal
- Silicon metal in aluminium
- Silicon metal in silicones
- Silicon metal in polysilicon
- Silicon metal in battery anodes
-
Chromium
- Chromium ore supply
- Chromium ore cash costs
- Ferrochrome supply
- Ferrochrome cash costs
-
Manganese
- Manganese ore supply
- Manganese ore cash costs
- Manganese alloy supply
- Manganese alloy cash costs
- Manganese metal supply
-
Ferrosilicon
- Ferrosilicon supply
- Ferrosilicon cash costs
-
Silicon metal
- Silicon metal supply
- Silicon metal cash costs
Tables and charts
This report includes 59 images and tables including:
- Forecast crude stainless steel production
- Chromium consumption outlook to 2050 by first use
- Consumption of ferrochrome by steel type
- Chromium ore and ferrochrome demand
- Outlook for global average manganese intensity of crude steel
- Manganese alloy and metal consumption outlook
- Manganese consumption by first use
- Chromium ore supply-demand balance outlook
- Future requirement for chromium ore supply
- South African 42-44% LG-MG ore vs 40-42% UG2 price outlook - real forecast
- South African 42-44% LG-MG ore vs Turkish 40-42 % ore price outlook - real forecast
- Ferrochrome supply-demand balance outlook
- Future requirement for ferrochrome capacity
- Long-term price forecast for high-carbon ferrochrome
- Manganese ore supply-demand balance outlook
- High-grade 44% manganese ore price outlook
- Silicomanganese supply-demand balance outlook
- High-carbon ferromanganese supply-demand balance outlook
- Silicomanganese price outlook
- High-carbon ferromanganese price outlook
- Manganese metal supply-demand balance outlook
- Manganese metal and MC FeMn price outlook
- High-purity manganese sulphate global supply-demand balance outlook – 90% utilisation assumed for all capacity
- High-purity manganese sulphate supply-demand balance outlook, China – 90% utilisation assumed for all capacity
- High-purity manganese sulphate global supply-demand balance outlook, ROW – 90% utilisation assumed for all capacity
- High-purity manganese sulphate price outlook
- Ferrosilicon supply-demand balance outlook
- Ferrosilicon (75%) price price outlook
- Silicon metal supply-demand balance outlook
- Silicon metal price outlook
- Forecast crude steel production
- Manganese consumption in Li-ion batteries, by form
- Ferrosilicon consumption by application
- Ferrosilicon consumption by steel type
- Silicon metal consumption by application
- Chromium ore production by major producing companies*, 2023, with additional output by 2030
- Chromium ore supply outlook by region
- Global chromite capacity total cash cost curve by region, 2023
- Major chromite ore producer total cash costs, 2023
- Major chromium ore producer ex-works costs, 2023
- Top-10 high-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome production capacity by company
- High-carbon ferrochrome supply outlook
- Global high-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome cash cost curve, 2023 (US¢/lb Cr, CIF China basis)
- High-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome cash costs by region and component, 2023
- Manganese ore production, 2000 to 2022: Mt gross weight versus Mt contained Mn
- Manganese ore supply outlook, by region
- Cash cost curve for manganese ore (basis 44% Mn), 2023
- Silicomanganese supply outlook
- High-carbon ferromanganese supply outlook
- Global FOB cash cost curve for silicomanganese, including silicomanganese used in the production of medium- and low-carbon ferromanganese, 2023
- Global FOB cash cost curve for high-carbon ferromanganese, including high-carbon ferromanganese used in the production of medium- and low-carbon ferromanganese, 2023
- Ferrosilicon supply outlook
- Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for ferrosilicon, by cost component, 2023
- Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for ferrosilicon, by region, 2023
- Silicon metal supply outlook
- Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for silicon metal, by cost component, 2023
- Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for silicon metal, by region, 2023
What's included
This report contains:
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