Commodity Market Report

Global bulk steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2024

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The majority of demand for bulk alloys is attributable to steel. The weak outlook for crude steel output will, therefore, heavily constrain bulk alloy demand over our long-term outlook period. One consolation is that output growth for stainless steel and other special steels will be better than for overall crude steel. Another consolation is that future-facing applications related to the energy transition have a much more positive growth potential. Despite relatively low demand growth, new mine capacity will be required for manganese in the longer term due to depletion at existing mines. The somewhat higher demand growth for chromium means that the need for new capacity will be more significant. Silicon metal demand, being heavily focused on future-facing applications already, will grow much faster than consumption of ferrosilicon.

Table of contents

  • Steel: India to offset China’s decline, but global output growth will be low
  • Chromium consumption to become even more dominated by stainless steel
  • South Africa to remain the most important growth driver for chromium ore output
  • China, India and Indonesia to drive ferrochrome output growth
  • Chromium ore prices to gradually fall, ferrochrome prices to gradually rise
  • Manganese consumption to remain dominated by steel, despite strong growth in batteries
  • South African manganese ore output will have to grow considerably, but not until after 2030
  • Manganese prices set to rise from current lows as costs increase and market rebalances
  • Ferrosilicon prices have a little further to fall in 2024, but will recover thereafter
  • Silicon metal demand growth to ease as Chinese polysilicon output calms down
    • Chromium ore
    • Chromium ore price forecast
    • Ferrochrome
    • Ferrochrome price forecast
    • Risks to the base case
    • South African electricity crisis
    • Manganese ore price forecast
    • Manganese alloy market balance
    • Manganese alloy price forecast
    • High-purity manganese sulphate market balance
    • High-purity manganese sulphate price outlook
    • Key risks to the base case price forecasts
    • Ferrosilicon
    • Ferrosilicon price forecast
    • Silicon metal
    • Silicon metal market outlook
    • Key risks to ferrosilicon and silicon metal base case price forecasts
    • Chromium ore supply
    • Chromium ore cash costs
    • Ferrochrome supply
    • Ferrochrome costs
    • Manganese ore supply
    • Manganese alloy supply
    • Manganese alloy costs
    • Manganese metal supply
    • Ferrosilicon supply outlook
    • Ferrosilicon cash costs
    • Silicon metal supply outlook
    • Silicon metal cash costs
  • Crude steel trends
  • Stainless steel production trends
  • Chromium
    • Manganese consumption in batteries
    • Ferrosilicon
    • Ferrosilicon in steel
    • Ferrosilicon in cast iron
    • Ferrosilicon in magnesium
    • Silicon metal
    • Silicon metal in polysilicon
    • Silicon metal in aluminium
    • Silicon metal in silicones
    • Silicon metal in battery anodes

Tables and charts

This report includes 57 images and tables including:

  • Manganese ore supply-demand balance outlook
  • Forecast crude steel production
  • Forecast crude stainless steel production
  • Chromium consumption outlook to 2050 by first use
  • Consumption of ferrochrome by steel type
  • Chromium ore and ferrochrome demand
  • Manganese consumption by first use
  • Outlook for global average manganese intensity of crude steel
  • Manganese alloy and metal consumption outlook
  • Chromium ore supply-demand balance outlook
  • Future requirement for chromium ore supply
  • South African 42-44% LG-MG ore vs 40-42% UG2 price outlook - real forecast
  • Price differentials for key chromium ore prices relative to SA-42-44% LG-MG ore price
  • Ferrochrome supply-demand balance outlook
  • Future requirement for ferrochrome capacity
  • Long-term price forecast for high-carbon ferrochrome
  • High-grade 44% manganese ore price outlook
  • Silicomanganese supply-demand balance outlook
  • High-carbon ferromanganese supply-demand balance outlook
  • Manganese metal supply-demand balance outlook
  • Silicomanganese price outlook
  • High-carbon ferromanganese price outlook
  • Manganese metal and MC FeMn price outlook
  • High-purity manganese sulphate global supply-demand balance outlook (kt contained Mn)
  • High-purity manganese sulphate price outlook
  • Ferrosilicon supply-demand balance outlook
  • Ferrosilicon (75%) price price outlook
  • Silicon metal supply-demand balance outlook
  • Silicon metal price outlook
  • Chromium ore production by major producing companies*, 2023
  • Chromium ore supply outlook by region
  • Global chromite capacity total cash cost curve by region, 2024
  • Major chromite ore producer total cash costs, 2024
  • Major chromium ore producer ex-works costs, 2024
  • High-carbon ferrochrome supply outlook
  • Top-10 high-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome production capacity by company
  • Global high-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome cash cost curve, 2024 (US¢/lb Cr, CIF China basis)
  • High-carbon ferrochrome and charge chrome cash costs by region and component, 2024
  • Manganese ore production, 2000 to 2023: Mt gross weight versus Mt contained Mn
  • Manganese ore supply outlook, by region
  • Cash cost curve for manganese ore (basis 44% Mn), 2024
  • Silicomanganese supply outlook
  • High-carbon ferromanganese supply outlook
  • Global FOB cash cost curve for silicomanganese, including silicomanganese used in the production of medium- and low-carbon ferromanganese, 2024
  • Global FOB cash cost curve for high-carbon ferromanganese, including high-carbon ferromanganese used in the production of medium- and low-carbon ferromanganese, 2024
  • Ferrosilicon production by major countries
  • Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for ferrosilicon, by cost component, 2024
  • Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for ferrosilicon, by region, 2024
  • Silicon metal supply outlook
  • Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for silicon metal, by cost component, 2024
  • Global total ex-plant cash cost curve for silicon metal, by region, 2024
  • Manganese consumption in batteries by battery type
  • Ferrosilicon consumption by application
  • Ferrosilicon consumption by steel type
  • Silicon metal consumption by application

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global bulk steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2024

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