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Commodity Market Report 11 April 2024

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Report summary

The majority of demand for bulk alloys is attributable to steel. The weak outlook for crude steel output will, therefore, heavily constrain bulk alloy demand over our long-term outlook period. One consolation is that output growth for stainless steel and other special steels will be better than for overall crude steel. Another consolation is that future-facing applications related to the energy transition have a much more positive growth potential. Despite relatively low demand growth, new mine capacity will be required for manganese in the longer term due to depletion at existing mines. The somewhat higher demand growth for chromium means that the need for new capacity will be more significant. Silicon metal demand, being heavily focused on future-facing applications already, will grow much faster than consumption of ferrosilicon.

Steel: India to offset China’s decline, but global output growth will be low
Chromium consumption to become even more dominated by stainless steel
South Africa to remain the most important growth driver for chromium ore output
China, India and Indonesia to drive ferrochrome output growth
Chromium ore prices to gradually fall, ferrochrome prices to gradually rise
Manganese consumption to remain dominated by steel, despite strong growth in batteries
South African manganese ore output will have to grow considerably, but not until after 2030
Manganese prices set to rise from current lows as costs increase and market rebalances
Ferrosilicon prices have a little further to fall in 2024, but will recover thereafter
Silicon metal demand growth to ease as Chinese polysilicon output calms down
Chromium
- Chromium ore
- Chromium ore price forecast
- Ferrochrome
- Ferrochrome price forecast
- Risks to the base case
- South African electricity crisis
Manganese
- Manganese ore price forecast
- Manganese alloy market balance
- Manganese alloy price forecast
- High-purity manganese sulphate market balance
- High-purity manganese sulphate price outlook
- Key risks to the base case price forecasts
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