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Commodity Market Report 28 December 2021

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Report summary

Wood Mackenzie forecasts global demand for cathode materials will soar to nearly 11.5 million tonnes in 2050. That corresponds to a rise of roughly 15 times from 2020 levels. China will remain dominant in cathode and precursor materials production over the next decade, although production is projected to grow outside the country. We forecast the cathode and precursor materials markets will be balanced in the long run. In the short and medium term, we project the prices of precursor and cathode materials to fluctuate with raw material prices, reinforced by the changing cathode materials market balance. In the long term, as raw materials markets mature, we will see smoother price patterns for precursor and cathode materials.

Overcapacity to meet demand before 2030, a result of the intensive investment in 2021
Raw materials cost to remain the main driver of precursors and cathodes price outlook
Cathode materials demand to soar as Li-ion batteries accelerate expansion in the market
China to continue to dominate cathode and precursor supply, despite anticipated growth in other regions
Market outlook
- LFP cathode materials market outlook
- NCM cathode materials market outlook
- NCA cathode materials market outlook
- LCO cathode materials market outlook
- LMO cathode materials market outlook
- Precursor materials market outlook
Price forecast
- Precursor materials price forecast
- NCM cathode materials price forecast
- LFP cathode materials price forecast
- LCO cathode materials price forecast
- LMO cathode materials price forecast
Global outlook
Demand by application
- The automotive sector
- The energy storage system (ESS) sector
- The portable electronics sector
- The power device sector
- The motive product sector
Global outlook
Supply by cathodes and precursors
- LFP supply
- NCM supply
- NCA supply
- LCO supply
- LMO supply
- Precursor materials supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 48 images and tables including:

Cathode materials demand by application, 2020-2050 (kt)
Cathode production, by type
Base case outlook for LFP supply

Base case outlook for NCM supply
NCA supply-demand balance outlook
LCO supply-demand balance outlook
LMO supply-demand balance outlook
PCAM supply-demand balance outlook
NCM523 precursor price forecast
NCM622 precursor price forecast
NCM811 precursor price forecast
NCM523 cathode price forecast
NCM622 cathode price forecast
NCM811 cathode price forecast
Cost breakdown of NCM cathode materials
Comparison of NCM cathode materials unit energy cost (US$/kWh)
LFP cathode price forecast
High-voltage LCO cathode price forecast
Low-voltage LCO cathode price forecast
LMO cathode price forecast
Automotive sales outlook by powertrain type, 2020-2050 (million units)
Cathode materials demand from passenger and commercial EVs, 2020-2050 (kt)
The choice of cathode chemistries for EVs
Cathode chemistry split in electric vehicles using Li-ion technologies, 2020-2050
Comparison of ternary and LFP battery energy density at cell level (Wh/kg)
Comparison of ternary and LFP battery energy density at pack level (Wh/kg)
Cathode materials demand from energy storage systems using Li-ion technologies, 2020-2050 (kt)
Cathode chemistry split in energy storage systems using Li-ion technologies, 2020-2050
Cathode materials demand from portable electronics using Li-ion technologies, 2020-2050 (kt)
Cathode chemistry split in portable electronics using Li-ion technologies, 2020-2050
Cathode materials demand from power devices using Li-ion technologies, 2020-2050 (kt)
Cathode chemistry split in power devices using Li-ion technologies, 2020-2050
Cathode materials demand from motive products using Li-ion technologies, 2020-2050 (kt)
Cathode chemistry split in motive products using Li-ion technologies, 2020-2050
LFP cathode supply
LFP cathode supply by country
Average forecast LFP production by five-year period (kt)
NCM cathode supply by country
Top nine NCM producers in China, 2021
Average forecast NCM production by five-year period (kt)
NCA cathode supply by country
LCO cathode supply by country
LMO cathode supply by country
Precursor supply by type
P-NCM supply by country
P-NCA supply by country
Top nine precursor production by company, 2021
Average forecast P-NCM production by five-year period (kt)