Global cathode and precursor short-term outlook June 2023

Europe takes the lead in EV sales growth for the month with a 27% increase on April; this brings the continent’s total year-to-date sales to over one million. China remains the largest player in terms of actual sales volumes. China showed a 13% recovery in May following a rather muted April and is expected to continue in its upward trajectory through to the end of Q2. With an improved outlook for EVs and increased supply risks and logistical challenges in Africa, we have revised our short-term cobalt pricing outlook upward. With other raw materials remaining relatively unchanged, the outlook for cathode pricing holds steady; the only real needle-moving factor now remains the lithium price. Supply and trade continue to be China-centric. Europe begins to see growth in NCM imports from China, overtaking Japan after a slow April. We are confident of annual double-digit growth over the forecast period for supply of NCM and LFP chemistries, driven by further robust sales in the EV sector.