Cobalt prices fell further in Q4 2022 amid lacklustre demand and ample supply. Commodity markets are faced with increasing uncertainty as warning signs dominate the global economy, with cobalt no exception. Despite short-term headwinds, we expect to see market improvement over the course of 2023. Strong EV momentum, aerospace recovery and healthy growth from portable electronics will continue to drive cobalt demand over the coming decade. Growth from batteries will outpace all other first-use applications supported by energy transition, increasing market share to over 70% by 2032. While a structural deficit is not yet on the horizon, the price must increase in the mid-2020s to incentivise the development of primary projects and EV battery recycling. Significant funding and investment will be required at state and company levels to establish localised value chains, improve ESG practices and create more stability in the global cobalt market.