Commodity Market Report
Global copper investment horizon outlook - Q3 2023
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Volatility and uncertainty will be a feature of the copper market over the short-to-medium-term shaped by the impact of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. The world is facing a two-speed economy; manufacturing, the key demand driver, is suffering an extended slump while labour markets and services enjoy a prolonged period of buoyancy. For now, demand from energy transition-related end-uses and a recovering auto sector appear to be propping up wire rod and cathode consumption. Despite declining prices and surpluses near-term, projects are still required to come on stream. Beyond 2025, given still steady demand, the pace of base case mine supply growth starts to falter. The risk is that an insufficient supply will receive a final investment decision before prices trend lower in 2024. Given the long lead times required to bring new capacity into production, producers must act now to avoid significant shortfalls in the market. Scrap will also need to play a more significant role.
Table of contents
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Copper medium-term outlook
- Investment Horizon – Medium-term supply considerations
- Long-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case copper market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Overview
- Changes since the last quarter
- China
- Europe
- North America
- Latin America
- Asia ex-China
- Rest of world
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Trends in consumption of secondary copper
- China scrap policy
- Global scrap outlook
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Overview and supply changes since the last quarter
- Mine projects
- Base Case
- Probable
- Possible
- Mine Disruption Allowance
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Regional mine production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
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Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Surpluses emerging in the global metal market over the short term
- Total copper consumption by property 2000-2033
- End-use copper demand from green sectors
- Total copper semis production 2000-2033
- Regional refined copper consumption 2000-2033
- Risks to copper consumption from passenger battery EVs
- Total copper consumption by industry sector 2000-2033
- Changes in refined copper consumption by region
- Regional refined copper consumption – kt
- Wind and solar power surpass the 1,200 GW target five years ahead of the government plan
- Mexican share of regional refined consumption to rise
- Refined copper consumption forecast regional breakdown 2020-33
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What's included
This report contains:
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