Commodity Market Report

Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2019

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24 September 2019

Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2019

Report summary

As the trade war continues to play out, copper prices have remained volatile throughout 2019. Three-month copper prices have now lost 12% of their value since trading to a US$6808/t peak in mid-April. The consistent tit-for-tat behaviour between China and the USA has undermined both consumer and market sentiment. A downgraded global demand outlook now points to a finely balanced copper market for 2019. Despite a return to positive mine supply growth in 2020, production will be more than offset by additions to demand as new semis capacity continues to ramp up. From a fundamental perspective, this should be positive for prices. Above average mine supply growth between 2021 and 2023, as output from the 2.7 Mt of new projects hits the market, will overwhelm estimated demand gains. It will only be once stocks start to decline and deficits emerge from 2024 that we expect prices to begin to trend higher to reach our forecast long-term incentive price by 2029.

Table of contents

  • Changes to the market outlook since Q2 2019
  • Overview
  • US-China trade war
  • China
  • North America
  • Latin America
  • Europe
  • Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
  • ASEAN and India
  • Russia & the Caspian
  • Rest of world
    • Scrap definition
    • Scrapping rates
    • Scrap usage
    • Scrap consumption
    • Scrap outlook
  • Principal uses of copper
    • Base Case
    • Probable
    • Possible
  • Copper smelter/refinery project changes since Q2 2019
  • Disruptions
    • Summary
    • Latin America and the Caribbean
    • Asia (excl. China)
    • North America
    • Oceania
    • Africa
    • Europe
    • China
    • Middle East
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • Requirement for new mine capacity
    • Summary
    • Africa
    • Asia (excl. China)
    • China
    • Latin America & Caribbean
    • Europe
    • North America
    • Middle East
    • Oceania
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • Summary
    • China
    • Asia (excluding China)
    • Europe
    • Africa
    • Latin America & Caribbean
    • North America
    • Middle East
    • Oceania
    • Russia and the Caspian

Tables and charts

This report includes 65 images and tables including:

  • Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
  • Global metal balances & LME copper price (2019$)
  • LME copper prices
  • Manufacturing PMI has fallen in most major copper consuming regions so far in 2019
  • Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2040 kt Cu
  • Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2040 kt Cu
  • Regional refined copper consumption - kt
  • Chinese exports of goods under HS code 84, 85 and 87
  • Exports of goods under HS code 84, 85 and 87 by major economies
  • The different stages of Chinese total copper consumption
  • China copper consumption breakdown
  • China end-use copper demand (excl semis trade), 2010-2040 (kt)
  • 2019 China end-use copper demand (excl semis trade)
  • Chinese refined copper consumption - kt
  • Mexico to command higher share of regional refined consumption
  • North American refined copper consumption - kt
  • Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
  • All major European copper consumers record a contraction in manufacturing PMI activity
  • Europe refined copper consumption - kt
  • Construction fell in Japan and S.Korea
  • Household consumption slows in Taiwan
  • Japan refined copper consumption - kt
  • Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
  • Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
  • Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
  • Other refined copper consumption - kt
  • Indexed copper consumption growth - (2010=100)
  • Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
  • Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2040 kt Cu
  • Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2040 kt Cu
  • Disruptions Summary (copper in concentrate plus SxEw cathode)
  • Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2030 kt Cu
  • Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian mine production capability - kt Cu
  • Incremental Cu market demand and base case, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
  • Global market demand for mine output
  • Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
  • Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
  • China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper smelter production - kt Cu
  • Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
  • Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
  • Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Copper_Tables_Q3_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.71 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes copper LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 172.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis copper LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes copper LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 87.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings copper LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 72.50 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production copper LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 11.48 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis copper LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 2.65 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis copper LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 1.50 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis copper LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 1.24 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices copper LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 478.50 KB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2019

    PDF 1.33 MB

  • Document

    Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2019

    ZIP 7.17 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack copper LTO Q3 2019.pdf

    PDF 1.28 MB

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