Commodity Market Report

Global copper short-term outlook August 2017

31 August 2017

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31 August 2017

Global copper short-term outlook August 2017

Report summary

The copper market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. August has seen copper rally to its highest level since September 2014 as the market has benefitted from a combination of dollar weakness, declining exchange inventories, robust macro data and a rise in speculative interest in industrial commodities. In our view, however, prices have run ahead of what is currently justified by the copper market's fundamentals. Lacklustre physical premia indicate that consumers remain well covered for material and overall we expect a broadly balanced market this year.

Executive summary
Supply-demand balances
- Market developments
  - Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance - (kt)
Demand
- China
- Europe
- India
Supply
- Concentrate markets
  - Blister/anode and scrap markets
  - Production news

Tables and charts

This report includes 21 images and tables including:

Copper key forecasts
Regional exchange stocks (kt)
Cancelled Warrants as % of LME Stocks (kt)

CFTC copper positions
LME 3-month copper price ($/t)
Copper prices in local currency terms
Residential completions vs. non-residential completions
Production and shipments of copper wire rod and copper semis - kt
Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
Concentrate market TCRCs
Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes - (kt Cu)
Supply-demand balances: Table 1
Blister market RCs
Global mine production - breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
Global copper refined consumption - (kt)
Global copper mine production - (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
Global copper smelter production - (kt)
Global copper refinery production - (kt)
Copper stocks
Copper prices and premia
Copper supply/demand balance global summary - (kt)