Global copper short-term outlook November 2023

November has seen three-month copper break out of the USD$7,850/t to USD$8,350/t trading range that dominated throughout October. Although prices were higher this past month, they have still traded within a relatively narrow USD$500/t range. Several factors have underpinned the rise in prices during November, not least the announcement of the suspension of commercial production at First Quantum’s Cobre Panama mine. This, together with a two-day strike by workers at MMG’s Las Bambas copper mine in Peru spurred three-month copper to a two-month high. While this level was not sustained, supply side developments, and especially those at Cobre Panama, will lead to increased price volatility in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the positive Chinese demand picture, underpinned mainly by offtake from energy transition related sectors has also prompted higher imports of refined metal in recent months. All these factors appear to have reignited speculative interest in the market.