Commodity Market Report

Global copper strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023

27 March 2023

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27 March 2023

Global copper strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023

Report summary

Heightened risk and volatility will be key features for copper over the near to medium term. Our base case outlook for demand is one of solid growth over the next few years. However, this will necessitate a firm recovery in China now that pandemic-related restrictions have been lifted and a limited fallout from the current banking crisis. Strong supply growth over the next couple of years, is set to weigh on prices over the period 2023 to 2025. Copper’s prospects over the long term remain bright and will intensify on the back of decarbonisation as well as the forces of industrialisation, urbanisation and population growth. To meet the future demand requirements, the next generation of copper mines needs to be incentivised now if the market is to deliver sufficient supply to close the theoretical supply gap that is set to emerge over the next decade. Given the long lead times required to bring on mines, some of this supply may be met by the higher use of scrap.

Long-term outlook
Medium-term outlook
Main risks around our base case copper market outlook
Scenario analysis
Overview
Changes since the last quarter
China
Europe
North America
Latin America
Asia ex-China
Rest of world
Trends in consumption of secondary copper
- China scrap policy
- Global scrap outlook
Overview and supply changes since the last quarter
- Mine projects
- Base Case
- Probable
- Possible
- Mine Disruption Allowance
- Strategic planning outlook - Long-term supply considerations
- Geopolitical landscape
- Reserves and resources
- Environmental challenges
- Social governance policy
- Technology
- Alternative sources of supply - scrap
Regional mine production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
Regional smelter production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America & Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
Regional refinery production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America & Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian

Tables and charts

This report includes 49 images and tables including:

Project sanctioning
Global copper supply and primary demand
Stock days of consumption and price

Global metal balances & LME copper price (2023$)
Global supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Price scenarios US$/t (real 2023$)
Price scenarios
Total copper consumption by industry sector 2000-2050
Regional refined copper consumption 2000-2050
Total copper consumption by property 2000-2050
Total copper semis production 2000-2050
Changes in refined copper consumption by region
Regional refined copper consumption - kt
Population growth slows in China
Chinese demand outlook by sector (kt)
China copper consumption breakdown
Mexican share of regional refined consumption to rise
Refined copper consumption forecast regional breakdown 2020-50
Indexed Copper Consumption Growth - 2010-2050
New standards for renewable copper material
New standards for renewable brass material
Global copper scrap use as a percentage share of total demand, 2000-2040
Chart: Mine disruptions summary
Disruptions summary (copper in concentrate and SxEw cathode)
Chart: Distribution of currently identified reserves and resources
Mined and scrap copper share of total consumption
Regional copper mine production - kt Cu
Chart: Africa copper mine production - Mt Cu
Chart: Asia (excl. China) copper mine production - Mt Cu
Chart: Europe copper mine production - Mt Cu
Chart: Latin America and the Caribbean copper mine production - Mt Cu
Chart: Middle East copper mine production - Mt Cu
Chart: North America copper mine production - Mt Cu
Chart: Oceania copper mine production - Mt Cu
Chart: Russia and the Caspian copper mine production - Mt Cu
Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
Chart: Africa copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
Chart: Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
Chart: Europe copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
Chart: Latin America and the Caribbean copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
Chart: North America copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
Chart: Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Chart: Africa copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
Chart: Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
Chart: Europe copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
Chart: Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
Chart: North America copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
Chart: Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu