Commodity Market Report
Global copper strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023
Report summary
Heightened risk and volatility will be key features for copper over the near to medium term. Our base case outlook for demand is one of solid growth over the next few years. However, this will necessitate a firm recovery in China now that pandemic-related restrictions have been lifted and a limited fallout from the current banking crisis. Strong supply growth over the next couple of years, is set to weigh on prices over the period 2023 to 2025. Copper’s prospects over the long term remain bright and will intensify on the back of decarbonisation as well as the forces of industrialisation, urbanisation and population growth. To meet the future demand requirements, the next generation of copper mines needs to be incentivised now if the market is to deliver sufficient supply to close the theoretical supply gap that is set to emerge over the next decade. Given the long lead times required to bring on mines, some of this supply may be met by the higher use of scrap.
Table of contents
- Long-term outlook
- Medium-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case copper market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Overview
- Changes since the last quarter
- China
- Europe
- North America
- Latin America
- Asia ex-China
- Rest of world
-
Trends in consumption of secondary copper
- China scrap policy
- Global scrap outlook
-
Overview and supply changes since the last quarter
- Mine projects
- Base Case
- Probable
- Possible
- Mine Disruption Allowance
- Strategic planning outlook - Long-term supply considerations
- Geopolitical landscape
- Reserves and resources
- Environmental challenges
- Social governance policy
- Technology
- Alternative sources of supply - scrap
-
Regional mine production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
-
Regional smelter production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America & Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
-
Regional refinery production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America & Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
Tables and charts
This report includes 49 images and tables including:
- Project sanctioning
- Global copper supply and primary demand
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global metal balances & LME copper price (2023$)
- Global supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Price scenarios US$/t (real 2023$)
- Price scenarios
- Total copper consumption by industry sector 2000-2050
- Regional refined copper consumption 2000-2050
- Total copper consumption by property 2000-2050
- Total copper semis production 2000-2050
- Changes in refined copper consumption by region
- Regional refined copper consumption - kt
- Population growth slows in China
- Chinese demand outlook by sector (kt)
- China copper consumption breakdown
- Mexican share of regional refined consumption to rise
- Refined copper consumption forecast regional breakdown 2020-50
- Indexed Copper Consumption Growth - 2010-2050
- New standards for renewable copper material
- New standards for renewable brass material
- Global copper scrap use as a percentage share of total demand, 2000-2040
- Chart: Mine disruptions summary
- Disruptions summary (copper in concentrate and SxEw cathode)
- Chart: Distribution of currently identified reserves and resources
- Mined and scrap copper share of total consumption
- Regional copper mine production - kt Cu
- Chart: Africa copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: Asia (excl. China) copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: Europe copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: Latin America and the Caribbean copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: Middle East copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: North America copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: Oceania copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Chart: Russia and the Caspian copper mine production - Mt Cu
- Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
- Chart: Africa copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Europe copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Latin America and the Caribbean copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: North America copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - Mt Cu
- Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Chart: Africa copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Europe copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: North America copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
- Chart: Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - Mt Cu
What's included
This report contains:
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