Commodity Market Report

Global copper strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023

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Heightened risk and volatility will be key features for copper over the near to medium term. Our base case outlook for demand is one of solid growth over the next few years. However, this will necessitate a firm recovery in China now that pandemic-related restrictions have been lifted and a limited fallout from the current banking crisis. Strong supply growth over the next couple of years, is set to weigh on prices over the period 2023 to 2025. Copper’s prospects over the long term remain bright and will intensify on the back of decarbonisation as well as the forces of industrialisation, urbanisation and population growth. To meet the future demand requirements, the next generation of copper mines needs to be incentivised now if the market is to deliver sufficient supply to close the theoretical supply gap that is set to emerge over the next decade. Given the long lead times required to bring on mines, some of this supply may be met by the higher use of scrap.

Table of contents

  • Long-term outlook
  • Medium-term outlook
  • Main risks around our base case copper market outlook
  • Scenario analysis
  • Overview
  • Changes since the last quarter
  • China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Latin America
  • Asia ex-China
  • Rest of world
  • 5 more item(s)...

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

  • Project sanctioning
  • Global copper supply and primary demand
  • Stock days of consumption and price
  • Global metal balances & LME copper price (2023$)
  • Global supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Price scenarios US$/t (real 2023$)
  • Price scenarios
  • Total copper consumption by industry sector 2000-2050
  • Regional refined copper consumption 2000-2050
  • Total copper consumption by property 2000-2050
  • Total copper semis production 2000-2050
  • Changes in refined copper consumption by region
  • 37 more item(s)...

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global copper strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023

    PDF 1.49 MB