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Commodity Market Report

Global graphite investment horizon outlook - Q3 2022

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Graphite prices are forecast to stabilise in Q4 and see an upturn towards the end of the year in line with China’s winter closures. Increasing demand and limited supply-side growth will lead to rising prices for battery grades, but an increasing surplus will drive down prices for other grades. Graphite demand is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.5% over the next decade, with automotive, PE and ESS leading future growth in batteries. Demand from steel-based applications will grow slowly as China’s steel industry winds down. Natural graphite is forecast to grow by 7.0% and synthetic graphite by 6.2% per year to 2032. The supply gap will widen in the mid-2020s as base case mine supply struggles to cover growing demand requirements. As supply ramps up from the current pipeline of projects, the gap will lessen to 2030 before we enter a new cycle in the final years of the forecast. An estimated US$2.2Bn of investment is required for new projects to meet base case supply by 2032.

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