Global graphite investment horizon outlook - Q4 2022

In Q4, graphite prices recovered from Q3 lows as disruptions to ex-China supply and winter Chinese mine closures tightened the supply/demand balance. Increasing demand and limited supply-side growth will lead to rising prices for battery grades, but an increasing surplus will drive down prices for other grades. Graphite demand is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.7% over the next decade, with automotive, PE, and ESS leading future growth in batteries. Demand from steel-based applications will grow slowly as China’s steel industry winds down. Natural graphite is forecast to grow by 7.4% and synthetic graphite by 6.2% per year to 2032. The supply gap in medium-size flakes will widen in the mid-2020s as base case mine supply struggles to cover growing demand requirements. This deficit will continue to grow to 2032 at current investment levels. More government support could help to lessen this shortfall, while China’s proven flexibility to bring new mines online rapidly could be key.